POLL: Trump Scores 52% Approval in Arizona at 100-Day Mark

Trump Scores 52% Approval in Arizona at 100-Day Mark

Strong Base Support; Independent Skepticism on Tariffs, Immigration Raids

PHOENIX (April 30th, 2025) – President Donald Trump marks his 100th day in office with a 52% job approval rating in Arizona, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Forty-four percent of Arizona registered voters disapprove of his job performance, while 4% have no opinion. The numbers reflect a state that narrowly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election and continues to provide him with a modest but clear majority of support.

Trump's strongest approval comes from Republicans (91% approve) and rural Arizona voters (67% approve). His weakest performance is among Independent voters, where he scores a 48% approval and 46% disapproval — a near-even split that reflects the competitive nature of Arizona's Independent-heavy electorate.

Among Democrats, 91% disapprove — a figure consistent with the intense partisan polarization of the current political environment.

"A 52% approval in Arizona after 100 days is a reasonable but not dominant position," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The president won Arizona by about 5 points in November. Holding 52% approval now suggests some modest attrition from his electoral coalition."

On specific policy areas, Trump's strongest issue approval comes on immigration and border security, where 58% of Arizona voters approve of his approach — a reflection of Arizona's geographic sensitivity to border issues and Trump's aggressive early executive actions on immigration enforcement. His deportation program has generated mixed reactions: 52% support increased deportations of undocumented immigrants with criminal records, while only 36% support large-scale deportations of long-term residents without criminal records.

The tariff issue is Trump's biggest vulnerability in Arizona. Only 39% of Arizona voters approve of his broad tariff policies, with 54% disapproving. The state's significant manufacturing sector, copper mining industry, and agricultural exporters are directly exposed to retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, making Arizona voters particularly attuned to the economic risks.

"The tariffs are polling worse in Arizona than almost anywhere else in the country, and that's because this state's economy is directly tied to cross-border trade," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Copper, agriculture, manufacturing — all of it is exposed to the tariff fallout."

On the economy overall, voter assessment has become more negative since the election: 44% now say economic conditions in Arizona are "getting worse," up from 29% who said so in October 2024. Thirty-one percent say conditions are improving, and 25% say they are staying the same.

Immigration remains Trump's strongest issue, and the survey finds significant support for his early actions to secure the southern border. The number of migrants encountered at the Arizona border has decreased sharply since January, and 61% of Arizona voters give Trump credit for reducing border crossings.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted April 25–27, 2025. Blended 47% Live Caller / 53% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034