POLL OF RECORD: Trump Wins Arizona — Post-Election Analysis of 2024 Presidential Race

POLL OF RECORD: Trump Wins Arizona — Post-Election Analysis

Trump Takes Arizona by 5.4 Points; Economy, Independent Voters Decisive

PHOENIX (November 8th, 2024) – Former President Donald Trump won Arizona's 11 electoral votes by a margin of 52% to 47%, according to OH Predictive Insights' post-election analysis of the 2024 presidential race. The 5.4-point victory margin — significantly wider than AZPOP's final pre-election survey, which showed a dead heat — reflects a late-breaking shift toward Trump driven by economic concerns, a stronger-than-expected rural turnout operation, and Harris' persistent weakness on immigration in a border state.

AZPOP's final survey (October 28–30) had shown Trump and Harris tied at 48% each. The 5.4-point gap between the poll and the result falls within the range of historical polling error but represents one of the larger deviations in AZPOP's 2024 cycle. Post-election analysis suggests several factors contributed: a significant undercount of low-propensity Republican voters in rural areas, late-deciding Independent voters breaking 3-to-1 for Trump on economic issues, and a higher-than-expected Hispanic male turnout for Trump.

"Our final poll captured the registered-voter environment accurately but underestimated the composition of the actual electorate," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The surge of sporadic Republican voters who came out in rural Arizona — the 'hidden Trump voter' phenomenon — was larger than our turnout model projected."

Exit polling confirms that Independent voters ultimately broke for Trump 53% to 43% — compared to the 50–43 Harris lead shown in AZPOP's September poll. This 17-point swing in Independent preference over the final two months of the campaign is the single largest shift in AZPOP's tracking history, suggesting that the economic message dominated voter decision-making in the final stretch.

The economy proved decisive: among voters who cited the economy as their top issue — 36% of all Arizona voters — Trump won 68% to 32%. Among voters who cited immigration — 22% — Trump won 79% to 21%. Harris only won decisively among voters citing abortion (78% to 22%), healthcare (69% to 31%), and democracy/election integrity (84% to 16%).

The math of 2024 was ultimately unfavorable for Democrats in Arizona: the issues where Trump dominated (economy, immigration) commanded a larger total share of the electorate than the issues where Harris dominated.

Methodology: Post-election analysis based on official Arizona election results and OH Predictive Insights exit survey of 1,892 actual voters conducted November 5, 2024.