POLL: Harris Surges to Tie Trump in Arizona Following Biden Exit

Harris Surges to Tie Trump in Arizona Following Biden Exit

Vice President Erases 4-Point Deficit; Race Now Dead Even at 48–48

PHOENIX (September 5th, 2024) – Arizona's presidential race has been dramatically reshuffled following President Biden's July decision to step aside, with Vice President Kamala Harris pulling into a dead heat with former President Donald Trump at 48% apiece among Arizona likely voters, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. The result marks a complete reversal from January's AZPOP survey, which had Trump leading Biden 48% to 44%.

Harris' surge in Arizona is driven by three converging factors: dramatically improved enthusiasm among Democratic voters (rising from 71% "very enthusiastic" in the Biden era to 84% under Harris), improved performance with Independent women (Harris leads 54% to 38% among female Independents), and a "convention bounce" effect following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

"What we're seeing in Arizona mirrors the national shift," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Harris has injected enormous energy into the Democratic base, and she's outperforming Biden substantially with the suburban women who will decide this state."

Among all Independent voters, Harris now leads Trump 50% to 43% — a striking reversal from January when Trump led Biden 46% to 39% with the same cohort. This 14-point swing among Independents represents the most significant structural change in Arizona's electoral landscape since Harris entered the race.

Trump maintains his strong Republican consolidation at 93% and continues to dominate among rural Arizona voters (61% to 34%). Harris leads in Maricopa County (51% to 46%), Pima County (59% to 36%), and among college-educated voters of both genders.

The survey finds that 67% of Arizona voters have a favorable view of Harris' debate performance against Trump on September 10th (referenced by respondents), while 54% say her immigration and border security positions are "too liberal" — a persistent vulnerability in a state with 370 miles of southern border.

"The border is still her Achilles heel in Arizona," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Trump's strongest attack lines in this state all run through immigration, and he'll use them relentlessly."

On the economy, Trump leads Harris 51% to 43% in terms of voter trust — a significant advantage, given that economic concerns rank first among Arizona likely voters' priorities at 36%. Harris leads on healthcare (52% to 42%) and reproductive rights (61% to 34%).

Methodology: AZPOP conducted September 1–3, 2024. Blended 46% Live Caller / 54% IVR. Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. n=700 with ±3.7% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034