POLL: Arizona Voters Sour on Trump Tariffs — Worry About Jobs and Prices

Arizona Voters Sour on Trump Tariffs — Worry About Jobs and Prices

57% Oppose Broad Tariff Policies; Cross-Border Trade, Manufacturing Concerns Dominate

PHOENIX (May 15th, 2025) – A significant majority of Arizona voters have turned against the broad tariff policies enacted by President Trump since taking office in January, with 57% opposing the tariffs and only 37% expressing support, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Six percent have no opinion. The opposition is particularly intense in Arizona, a state with significant economic exposure to cross-border trade with Mexico and industries vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

Arizona sits at the crossroads of U.S.-Mexico trade, with cross-border commerce totaling approximately $32 billion annually. The state's major industries — copper mining, semiconductor manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism — all have significant exposure to either tariff costs or retaliatory measures from trading partners. Mexico is Arizona's single largest trading partner, and the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods has created significant uncertainty for businesses across the state.

Opposition to the tariffs is bipartisan. While Republicans support the tariffs 61% to 31%, a larger-than-expected 31% of Republican voters oppose them — a finding that reflects the real economic anxiety in GOP-leaning rural communities and small businesses that are directly exposed to tariff impacts. Independent voters oppose the tariffs 64% to 29%, and Democrats oppose them 82% to 12%.

"Tariff opposition at 57% in a state Trump won is a significant political vulnerability," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Arizona's economic integration with Mexico is not an abstraction — it's the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers and business owners who are directly feeling the impact."

The survey asked voters to identify their primary concern about the tariff policies. Rising consumer prices tops the list, cited by 41% of tariff opponents. Job losses in manufacturing (mentioned by 23%), damage to the agricultural sector (18%), and harm to small businesses (11%) round out the top concerns. Only 7% cite trade deficits as their primary focus — the primary rationale offered by the administration for the tariff policy.

On the broader economic outlook, the survey finds a notable pessimistic turn: 48% of Arizona voters describe the current economic direction as "getting worse," up from 29% in November 2024. This 19-point shift in economic pessimism over six months represents the sharpest deterioration in AZPOP's economic sentiment tracker since the COVID pandemic era.

"The economic confidence numbers are alarming," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "When economic pessimism rises 19 points in six months in a state the president just won, that's a leading indicator of political vulnerability."

Despite the tariff opposition, Trump's immigration and border security numbers remain strong, and his job approval in Arizona remains at 49% at the time of this survey — down 3 points from April's 100-day survey.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted May 10–12, 2025. Blended 46% Live Caller / 54% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034