POLL: Trump Leads Biden in Arizona as 2024 Race Takes Shape

Trump Leads Biden in Arizona as 2024 Race Takes Shape

Former President Holds 4-Point Advantage Among Likely Voters in January Tracking Survey

PHOENIX (January 18th, 2024) – As the 2024 presidential election begins to crystallize, a new Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) survey from OH Predictive Insights finds former President Donald Trump leading incumbent President Joe Biden by a margin of 48% to 44% among Arizona likely voters. Eight percent of respondents remain undecided, underscoring the fluid nature of the race more than ten months before Election Day.

The survey reveals that Trump's advantage is built primarily on a near-monolithic Republican coalition — 93% of self-identified Republicans back the former president — while Biden struggles to consolidate Democratic support at 89%. Among the critical bloc of Independent voters, Trump leads 46% to 39%, a 7-point gap that could prove decisive in a state decided by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020.

"Arizona is once again shaping up to be the ultimate battleground," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Trump's advantage with Independents at this stage of the race is a yellow flag for the Biden campaign, though there is still substantial time for the dynamics to shift."

The geographic breakdown of the survey shows Trump leading in all regions of the state except Maricopa County's urban core and Pima County. In rural Arizona, Trump's margins swell to double digits, reflecting a broader national trend of rural consolidation behind the Republican Party. Maricopa County — home to roughly 60% of Arizona's registered voters — shows a razor-thin 47% to 46% Trump edge, well within the margin of error and essentially a toss-up.

Age demographics tell a familiar story: voters over 50 lean toward Trump by 9 points, while voters under 35 favor Biden by 11 points. The key battleground age cohort of 35–49-year-olds is split nearly evenly, 47% Trump to 46% Biden.

"The youth gap and the senior gap are both real and significant," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "The question is which party does the better job of mobilizing their respective base."

On economic issues — ranked as the top concern by 38% of respondents — Trump holds a substantial 54% to 37% advantage over Biden in terms of voter trust. Biden edges Trump on healthcare (51% to 41%) and climate issues (56% to 32%), but these topics rank lower in overall voter priority heading into 2024.

The survey also asked respondents to assess the country's direction: 61% of Arizona likely voters believe the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 32% who say it is heading in the right direction. Among those who say the country is on the wrong track, Trump leads Biden by 68% to 22%.

"The wrong-track number is the single most ominous data point for any incumbent," Noble notes. "When nearly two-thirds of likely voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, that fundamentally challenges the incumbent's ability to win re-election."

Both campaigns have invested heavily in Arizona infrastructure since 2020, recognizing the state's 11 electoral votes as potentially decisive. The Biden campaign has maintained a significant grassroots operation in Maricopa County, while Trump allies have focused on voter registration drives in rural communities and suburban Phoenix.

Methodology: The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted January 14–16, 2024, using a blended methodology of 48% Live Caller and 52% Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The survey targeted Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. Sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. The sample size was 600 completed surveys with a margin of error of ±4.0% at the 95% confidence level. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034