State of the State

Trump Approval Holds Steady; Congressional Republicans Fall Behind; Education Now #1 Issue

PHOENIX (March 6, 2020) – The 2020 election year is going to bring attention to Arizona the likes of which many voters in the state have never seen before. Once a ruby-red state, Arizona is now home to one of the closest Senate elections this cycle and will be at the epicenter of an extremely hard-fought presidential campaign.

The Arizona Statewide survey was conducted March 3–4, 2020, with a sample of 600 likely voters. Blended phone survey, MoE ±4%.

"Education is now the #1 most pressing issue facing Arizonans, overtaking Immigration in the Grand Canyon State," said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights.

Arizona is primed for its closest presidential margin since Bill Clinton won the state by 2 points in 1996. Trump's approval as of today has tapered off after bouncing back from its lowest point in OHPI's tracking poll in August 2019.

Trump's low numbers have also translated to the Republican generic ballot. After narrowing to a tie in December, Republicans are now down 4% to Democrats in the latest AZPOP — only the second time since OHPI began asking the generic ballot question that Democrats have led.

On the Arizona right track/wrong track question, 40% say the state is headed in the right direction vs. 36% wrong track. Democrats are the outlier — 42% say wrong track vs. 36% right track. Republicans and Independents say right track by +8% and +10% margins respectively.

For the first time since October 2018 — at the height of the "migrant caravan" issue — Immigration has been knocked from the top spot as the most pressing issue facing Arizona. Education now leads.

Methodology: Blended phone poll (cell and landline), March 3–4, 2020. Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.

Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (480) 313-1837