Republicans Struggle to Hold on to Moderates

With gloomier outlook on Trump and Arizona, moderate Republicans show signs of anger

PHOENIX (June 19, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) of likely Arizona 2018 Republican primary voters takes a look at the likeliest revolt happening within the Arizona Republican party — self-identified Moderates. This group is discontent with Trump, and it's reflected as they see Arizona heading in the wrong direction, even as their fellow partisans hold full control of the state and the nation.

"Currently, the GOP is in a real pickle for the upcoming midterm elections based on our numbers," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights.

OHPI asked which branch of the Republican party the respondent identified with — approximately 1 in 4 voters described themselves as moderates.

The leading disagreement between moderates and other Republican party members is President Trump. For non-moderates, Trump's approval rating was over 90%. Among moderates, the President's approval rating was 36%, while his disapproval rating increased to over 30%.

This discontent also extends to state politics. Moderate Republicans are less likely to believe that Arizona is on the right track — approximately 37% of moderate voters consider the state is moving in a negative direction.

"Republicans can turn it around, but right now they have a massive problem with the attitude of the moderates in their party," said Noah Rudnick, data analyst at OH Predictive Insights. "This group may not be exceedingly instrumental in the party, but they have an incredible influence in the November elections. This is the group to watch as the deciding factor in several key races."

Methodology: IVR telephone survey, June 11–12, 2018. Likely Arizona 2018 Republican Primary voters. 90% Republican / 10% Independent. 100% landline. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-402-5181