Previous Political Experience is No Help in the Republican Primary

Trump Loyalists See Past Government Work as Liability

PHOENIX (June 21, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) of likely Arizona 2018 Republican primary voters asked whether previous experience as an elected official made voters more or less likely to vote for that candidate.

"The Tea Party has handed the torch to the Trump base on wanting 'outsider' candidates," said Noah Rudnick, a data analyst with OH Predictive Insights. "The era of D.C. bashing and establishment bashing has only just begun."

Overall, respondents were unfazed. But if past experience in office caused a reaction, a negative reaction led the way by a 2:1 margin.

The effect varies by ideology. Among self-identified Moderates, it had no net effect. Trump Republicans had the most visceral reaction to candidates with experience — nearly 4:1 against. Christian Conservatives were almost 2:1 against. Notably, Trump Republicans and Christian Conservatives combined equal 63% — nearly two-thirds — of Arizona's likely GOP primary voter base.

Political scientists Sarah Treul and Rachel Porter discovered this trend recently by showing the explosive growth in the number of outsiders winning Republican primaries in recent cycles.

"When I came across the Treul/Porter findings I was flabbergasted," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "Now, based on what we see in our own poll, we can't help but lend more credence to their report."

Methodology: IVR telephone survey, June 11–12, 2018. 90% Republican / 10% Independent. 100% landline. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-402-5181