Poll: GOP Primary for Rep. Trent Franks' Seat Wide-Open

Trump support can be the deciding factor for who wins, Franks' support a double-edged sword

PHOENIX (December 12, 2017) – Nationally politicians and iconic personalities have been ousted for sexual harassment. Arizona's longest-tenured GOP Congressman, Trent Franks, representing a safe GOP district, resigned suddenly due to allegations of inappropriate behavior. This triggered a special election called for February 27th, 2018 by Gov. Doug Ducey — a mad dash to determine who will replace him.

ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights teamed up to find out who has the upper hand in the current state of the race. An IVR survey was conducted with 400 Republican and Republican-leaning Independent likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters in Arizona's 8th Congressional District (MoE ±4.89%).

Candidate name ID and favorability scorecard:

Former Arizona Corporation Commissioner Bob Stump led the group in both name ID and net favorable name ID at +29%. Maricopa County Supervisor Clint Hickman had lower name ID but voter opinion is predominantly favorable at a net positive of +26%. State Senator Debbie Lesko came in third with the second-highest name ID at 58% but only a net positive of +18% for favorability. State Senator Kimberly Yee has the lowest name ID of the top 4.

Horse race — if the election were held today:

Just over a third of likely GOP Special Election voters are undecided. The top-three are Bob Stump, Debbie Lesko, and Clint Hickman — all within the margin of error of each other. The race is on to attract undecided voters.

President Donald Trump's endorsement would be a huge advantage — likely GOP Special Election voters are more likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate by a 3:1 margin. Franks' endorsement is a double-edged sword: 44% more likely to support, 33% less likely.

"The AZ-08 race is the modern-day equivalent to the Hunger Games — a mad dash to secure support, raise a pile of money, and capture those undecided voters," said Mike Noble. "The real x-factor here is whether or not President Trump tips the scales to a candidate in the race, which would be a game changer."

Methodology: IVR survey completed December 11, 2017. Sample size: 400 completed surveys, MoE ±4.89%. Age leaned heavily 55+ due to automated survey medium.

Media Contact: Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 480-313-1837