Poll: Republican Debbie Lesko Leading by 10-Points in AZ-08 Special Election

Republicans have an "Independent" problem

PHOENIX (April 12, 2018) – Despite a closer-than-expected race, the GOP is in a strong position to win the Special Election for Arizona's Eighth Congressional District on April 24th.

OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) conducted an IVR survey on April 11th of 500 likely Special Election voters in AZ-08 (Republicans, Independents, and Non-Declared). MoE ±4.38%.

"The GOP is in a prime position for a much-needed win as we head into the mid-term elections," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "With such a heavy GOP registration advantage this race appears a bridge too far for Democrats."

Republican Debbie Lesko leads her Democratic challenger Dr. Hiral Tipirneni by 10 points, even though 14% of Republicans are voting for Tipirneni compared to just 10% of Democrats voting for Lesko. Tipirneni is winning with Independent voters by 12 points, but the heavy GOP advantage in the district negates this. Lesko has a stark advantage capturing two-thirds of voters with a high school or less education level. AZ-08 is traditionally solid red — this race will be the closest in decades, but likely not close enough.

"When the Democrat is up 12 points with Independent voters and up by 40 points with self-identified Moderate voters, that points to a problem in expanding the GOP base this election year," said Noah Rudnick, Data Analyst at OH Predictive Insights.

Methodology: IVR survey completed April 11, 2018. Sample size: 500 completed surveys, MoE ±4.38%.

Media Contacts:

• Tiffany Traver, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-254-5159
• Chris Kline, ABC15 Arizona — [email protected], 602-685-3055