Poll: AZ-08 GOP Special Election Now a Two-Person Race as Early Voting Begins

Lesko and Montenegro tied, Stump falls to 4th

PHOENIX (February 1, 2018) – A new poll of the heavily GOP Congressional District 8 shows it is a two-candidate race between Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro.

The two leaders are tied with 21% each in the latest OH Predictive Insights IVR survey of 400 likely 2018 GOP Special Election voters in Arizona's 8th Congressional District (MoE ±4.89%).

Phil Lovas is now third with 12%. Bob Stump, the former frontrunner, has dropped to fourth after taking hits from opponents and media about whether he is taking advantage of his name change to that of a former congressman in the West Valley.

"Former state senators Debbie Lesko and Steve Montenegro are the clear front runners in the GOP primary," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "Lesko has the highest favorables at 54% amidst her campaign's decision to begin TV ads on Fox News. Montenegro has gained 20 points from early December after garnering endorsements from Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Senator Ted Cruz."

Horse race — if the election were held today:

"There is a large field of candidates however it is now a two-person race between Lesko and Montenegro — may the best man or woman win," said Noble.

Candidate standings and changes since the December 11, 2017 poll:

A key indicator of winning a campaign is not just being known, but being known AND liked. Bob Stump's unfavorable numbers jumped 17 points since the December 11 poll due to the recent name controversy.

State of the Race in AZ-08 — 40-Second Video Summary:

Methodology: IVR survey completed February 1, 2018. Sample size: 400 completed surveys, MoE ±4.89%. Age leaned 55+ due to automated survey medium.

Media Contact: Tiffany Traver, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-254-5159