AZPOP: Mark Kelly's Popularity — A Major Asset for Arizona Democrats in 2026

Mark Kelly's Popularity — A Major Asset for Arizona Democrats in 2026

55% Approval, +20 Net Favorable; Kelly's Bipartisan Brand Benefits Entire Democratic Ticket

PHOENIX (April 16th, 2026) – As Arizona Democrats prepare for what may be the most consequential midterm election of the decade, U.S. Senator Mark Kelly's sustained 55% job approval rating — the highest of any Arizona official currently tracked by AZPOP — represents a significant organizational and coattail asset for Democratic candidates at every level, according to a new survey from OH Predictive Insights.

Kelly's approval has held at 54–56% for four consecutive AZPOP waves — a remarkable consistency that reflects a durable coalition built on his biography, bipartisan legislative record, and constituent service. His net favorability of +20 (55% favorable, 35% unfavorable) is the highest among major Arizona political figures, ahead of Gallego (+19), Hobbs (+5), and potential Republican challengers who all register net negative or slightly positive.

Among Republican voters, 31% approve of Kelly — a consistent reading that represents the crossover Republican support that makes him one of the most electorally durable Democrats in Arizona history. Among Independents, 58% approve. These numbers give Kelly unusual ability to campaign for Democratic candidates in competitive districts without the partisan anchor that typically weighs down party leaders.

"Kelly's popularity is a party-wide resource for Arizona Democrats," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "In competitive districts like AZ-06, having Kelly make a campaign appearance or cut an ad is genuinely valuable because Republican and Independent voters don't reflexively tune him out."

The senator has been actively campaigning for Democratic candidates in competitive races, appearing at fundraisers for the AZ-06 incumbent and organizing voter registration drives in Maricopa County's competitive precincts. His political action committee has contributed to several down-ballot Democratic candidates.

On the question of endorsements, 62% of Arizona voters say a Kelly endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate — the highest positive endorsement value of any Arizona political figure tested. By comparison, a Trump endorsement has a positive effect for 44% of voters and a negative effect for 48%.

Kelly's sustained popularity also provides a strategic contrast to the Republican narrative that Arizona has moved right since 2020. His 2022 reelection by 5.4 points, combined with Gallego's 2024 victory, suggests Democrats have built a durable if narrow coalition advantage in Arizona statewide races.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted April 11–13, 2026. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.