POLL: Hobbs Approval Rating at 48% After One Year in Office

Hobbs Approval Rating at 48% After One Year in Office

Governor Posts Modest Numbers; Independents Give Mixed Reviews

PHOENIX (January 11th, 2024) – Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs marks her first year in office with a job approval rating of 48%, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Forty percent of registered Arizona voters disapprove of her job performance, while 12% have no opinion. The results suggest a governor who has consolidated her Democratic base while remaining a divisive figure with Republicans and a work-in-progress for the crucial Independent electorate.

Among Democrats, Hobbs enjoys a strong 81% approval rating, reflecting satisfaction with her administration's first year. Republicans disapprove by a 72% to 18% margin, a predictable result given the bitter nature of the 2022 election. The most significant data point for Hobbs' political future may be her standing with Independent voters: 46% approve, 38% disapprove, and 16% have no opinion — a modest net positive of +8.

"A 48% approval rating after year one isn't a bad place to be, but it's not a strong place either," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The governor needs to improve her numbers with Independents if she wants to build the kind of coalition that wins re-election comfortably."

On specific policy areas, Hobbs receives her highest marks on education (52% approve of her handling), reflecting her emphasis on public school funding and teacher pay. Her lowest ratings come on the state budget (39% approve), where a protracted standoff with the Republican-controlled legislature over K-12 funding created negative headlines throughout much of 2023.

Immigration and border security remain persistent weak points for the governor. Only 37% of Arizona voters approve of her handling of border issues, compared to 48% who disapprove — a reflection of the state's geographic sensitivity to federal immigration policy.

"The budget battle and immigration are her two biggest vulnerabilities heading into the latter half of her term," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Voters want to see leadership on both fronts, and right now they're not fully satisfied."

On the question of re-election, 44% of registered Arizona voters say Hobbs deserves to be re-elected, while 42% say it is time for someone new. Fourteen percent are undecided. Given that Hobbs won her first term by less than 1 percentage point, these numbers indicate that her 2026 re-election bid will be highly competitive.

Regional breakdown shows Hobbs with strong numbers in Pima County (55% approve) and a narrow positive in Maricopa County (49% approve), while trailing badly in rural Arizona (28% approve, 59% disapprove).

Methodology: The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted January 6–8, 2024, using a blended methodology of 49% Live Caller and 51% IVR. The survey targeted Arizona Registered Voters. Sample demographics were weighted to reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. Sample size: 600 with ±4.0% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034