POLL: First Head-to-Head — Hobbs Leads Toma 48% to 44% in Early 2026 Governor Poll

First Head-to-Head — Hobbs Leads Toma 48% to 44% in Early 2026 Governor Poll

Hobbs Leads by 4 in January; Narrower Than 2022 Victory Margin Suggests Competitive Race Ahead

PHOENIX (January 15th, 2026) – The first comprehensive head-to-head poll of Arizona's 2026 governor's race shows incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leading likely Republican nominee Ben Toma 48% to 44%, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Eight percent of likely voters remain undecided. The 4-point Hobbs lead, while positive for the incumbent, is narrower than her party registration advantage would suggest and reflects a competitive environment shaped by economic anxiety and voter desire for change.

Hobbs won her 2022 election by just 0.7 percentage points over Kari Lake — the narrowest gubernatorial margin in Arizona history. The 4-point lead against Toma in January 2026 represents an improved starting position compared to her 2022 race, but the dynamics of the electorate have shifted: the wrong-track environment is more challenging, and Toma is a stronger general election candidate than Lake.

Among Independent voters, Hobbs leads Toma 52% to 41% — the 11-point Independent advantage that has been her electoral foundation. Among Republicans, Toma leads 87% to 9%. Among Democrats, Hobbs leads 91% to 6%.

"Hobbs' lead with Independents is the structural foundation of her re-election case," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "If she can maintain an 11-point Independent lead through November, the math is in her favor. But Toma is going to spend the next nine months trying to cut into that margin."

Favorability ratings are nearly equal: Hobbs posts a +4 net favorable (46% favorable, 42% unfavorable), while Toma stands at +6 net favorable (38% favorable, 32% unfavorable, but with 30% having no opinion — reflecting his lower name recognition). As the race progresses and both candidates become better known, favorability ratings will converge toward a tighter margin.

The top issues driving voter choice in the race: healthcare (34%), economy and cost of living (27%), water policy (21%), and housing affordability (18%). On healthcare — the defining issue — Hobbs leads Toma 55% to 37% in voter trust. On the economy, Toma leads 50% to 42%. The next nine months will be a battle over which issue framework dominates the race.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted January 10–12, 2026. n=600 Arizona Likely Voters. ±4.0% MOE.