POLL: Hobbs and Toma Locked in Dead Heat — Arizona 2026 Governor Race a Toss-Up

Hobbs and Toma Locked in Dead Heat — Arizona 2026 Governor Race a Toss-Up

Hobbs 47%, Toma 46% — Within Margin of Error With Five Months Until Election Day

PHOENIX (May 21st, 2026) – Arizona's 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the state's recent history, with Gov. Katie Hobbs and likely Republican nominee Ben Toma locked in a statistical tie, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Hobbs leads 47% to 46%, with 7% of likely voters undecided — a margin well within the poll's ±3.7% margin of error.

The survey marks the first head-to-head test between Hobbs and Toma following Toma's effective consolidation of the Republican primary field. After a competitive primary campaign against Sheriff Jerry Sheridan and Senate President Warren Petersen, Toma has rallied Republican support to 87% — well above the 79% he polled among Republicans in January — and has received a strong signal of support from national Republican infrastructure groups who view Arizona as a top-priority gubernatorial target.

Hobbs' path to re-election runs through the Independent voter bloc, where she currently leads Toma 51% to 42% — a 9-point advantage that closely mirrors the margin by which she won Independent voters in 2022. If she can maintain that Independent lead, the demographic math favors her re-election. However, her 44% overall approval rating and the state's elevated 60% wrong-track number represent significant structural headwinds.

"This race is going to be decided in the Phoenix suburbs — the Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert precincts that have the highest concentration of Independent and college-educated voters," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Right now, Hobbs is winning those voters. But Toma is making a credible pitch for suburban Republicans who have college degrees and are concerned about the economy and water."

Toma's campaign has focused heavily on three issues: the economy and cost of living, water security, and government efficiency. His background as a businessman and his tenure as House Speaker give him credibility on economic and governance issues. His 9-point deficit with Independents remains his primary challenge — a gap that mirrors Kari Lake's Independent problem in both 2022 and 2024, though Toma is significantly closer to parity than Lake ever was.

On the question of healthcare — now Arizona's top issue at 34% of voters naming it their primary concern — Hobbs leads Toma 54% to 38% in terms of voter trust. Given the centrality of healthcare to this election cycle, this 16-point Hobbs advantage on the defining issue of the campaign is her most significant structural asset.

Water policy provides more mixed terrain. Voters trust Hobbs slightly more on water management (48% to 44%), but Toma's emphasis on private sector and market-driven water solutions has resonated with business-oriented voters.

"Healthcare is the issue that most advantages Hobbs," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "If this election is a healthcare referendum, she wins. If it becomes an economy and government accountability referendum, Toma has a real path."

Methodology: AZPOP conducted May 16–18, 2026. Blended 46% Live Caller / 54% IVR. Arizona 2026 Likely Voters. n=700 with ±3.7% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034