POLL: Hobbs Approval Slips to 44% in Year Two

Hobbs Approval Slips to 44% in Year Two — Budget Fight Takes Toll

Governor Underwater for First Time; Independents Drift Away

PHOENIX (January 23rd, 2025) – Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs enters the second year of her term with her job approval rating having slipped into negative territory for the first time, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Forty-four percent of Arizona registered voters approve of her job performance, while 46% disapprove — a net rating of -2, compared to her net positive of +8 in January 2024. Ten percent have no opinion.

The decline is driven primarily by erosion among Independent voters, where Hobbs has slipped from +8 net favorable (46% approve / 38% disapprove) to -6 net favorable (40% approve / 46% disapprove) over the past twelve months. A prolonged 2024 budget standoff with the Republican-controlled legislature, which left Arizona without a complete budget for five months, appears to have damaged perceptions of her effectiveness and leadership.

Democrats continue to strongly support Hobbs (79% approve), and Republicans remain firmly opposed (78% disapprove). But the crucial Independent bloc's shift toward disapproval represents a meaningful deterioration in her political standing.

"The budget fight was a leadership test, and voters gave her mixed grades," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Independents in particular want their governor to get things done, and a five-month budget impasse — regardless of who's to blame — reflects poorly on the executive."

On specific issue areas, Hobbs receives her best ratings on education policy (49% approve) — a reflection of her signature $600 million investment in teacher salaries and school infrastructure — and her lowest marks on the state economy (37% approve) and immigration/border security (31% approve). The low immigration number reflects a persistent vulnerability for Democratic executives in border states, even when border policy is primarily a federal responsibility.

On the question of re-election, 40% of Arizona voters say Hobbs deserves another term, while 47% say it is time for someone new. This is a meaningful deterioration from one year ago, when 44% wanted her re-elected versus 42% who wanted change.

Early potential Republican challengers for the 2026 gubernatorial race are testing well in early name recognition surveys. Former Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma (37% favorable, 22% unfavorable, 41% no opinion) and Maricopa County Sheriff Jerry Sheridan (32% favorable, 28% unfavorable, 40% no opinion) show the strongest early profiles among Republicans.

"Hobbs is in a vulnerable position heading into 2026," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "She's not in a catastrophic place, but a governor who is net negative on approval with 18 months to go before her reelection campaign begins faces a real challenge."

Methodology: AZPOP conducted January 18–20, 2025. Blended 48% Live Caller / 52% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034