POLL: Arizona Voters Credit Trump for Border Improvement — But Worry About Legal Residents

Arizona Voters Credit Trump for Border Improvement — But Worry About Legal Residents

61% Credit Trump on Border; 57% Worried About Impact on Arizona Communities

PHOENIX (June 5th, 2025) – Arizona voters recognize a significant improvement in border security under President Trump's first five months in office, with 61% giving the administration credit for reducing illegal border crossings, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. However, a majority — 57% — also express concern about the impact of immigration enforcement on legal Arizona residents and communities, reflecting the complex human dimensions of aggressive enforcement in a border state.

Illegal border crossings in Arizona have decreased by approximately 72% since January 2025 — one of the sharpest declines in recorded history — driven by aggressive deportation operations, expanded use of expedited removal, increased Border Patrol staffing, and diplomatic pressure on Mexico and Central American countries. Arizona voters across the partisan spectrum acknowledge the reduction: 87% of Republicans, 54% of Independents, and even 37% of Democrats give Trump credit for the border improvement.

"The border numbers are real and Arizona voters can see them," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "This is one area where the administration's most aggressive action has produced results that voters recognize, regardless of how they feel about other Trump policies."

The concern about legal resident impacts reflects the lived experience of Arizona communities with large Hispanic populations. High-profile cases involving long-term residents — some with U.S.-born children and decades of community ties — have generated significant media coverage and emotional resonance beyond strictly partisan lines.

On the appropriate level of enforcement going forward: 31% want the administration to increase enforcement further, 44% support maintaining current enforcement levels, 20% want enforcement scaled back to focus only on those with criminal records, and 5% want enforcement reduced overall. The largest group — 44% — supports the current approach, suggesting the administration has found a level of enforcement that roughly corresponds to the median Arizona voter preference.

On specific enforcement scenarios, voter support varies dramatically based on the individual circumstances. Large majorities support deporting individuals with violent criminal records (89%), drug trafficking convictions (82%), and recent illegal entries (71%). Much smaller majorities or pluralities support deporting individuals who have been in the country for more than 10 years (31% support), those with U.S.-born children (24% support), or DACA recipients who were brought as children (29% support).

Methodology: AZPOP conducted June 1–3, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.