POLL: Arizona Voters Divided on Mass Deportation — Support Targeted Enforcement

Arizona Voters Divided on Mass Deportation — Support Targeted Enforcement

72% Back Removing Those with Criminal Records; 57% Oppose Large-Scale Deportation of Long-Term Residents

PHOENIX (March 20th, 2025) – Arizona voters sharply distinguish between targeted and mass deportation in a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights, supporting the removal of undocumented immigrants with serious criminal records by 72% while opposing large-scale deportation of long-term undocumented residents without criminal histories by 57% to 37%.

The findings reflect the nuanced, complex nature of Arizona voter attitudes on immigration — a state that borders Mexico for 370 miles, employs significant numbers of undocumented workers in agriculture and construction, and has a large and politically engaged Hispanic population (approximately 31% of registered voters).

The Trump administration's aggressive deportation program, which launched in January 2025, has been felt acutely in Arizona. ICE enforcement actions in the Phoenix metro area increased by 340% in the first two months of the administration compared to the same period in 2024, and numerous cases involving long-term Arizona residents — some with U.S.-citizen family members — have generated significant local media coverage.

Among Republicans, 62% support large-scale deportation of all undocumented immigrants. Among Independents, only 34% support mass deportation while 59% oppose it. Among Democrats, 81% oppose and 13% support large-scale deportation.

"Arizona's Immigration attitudes have always been more complex than the national debate suggests," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "You can have 67% of Arizonans wanting stronger border enforcement and simultaneously have 57% opposed to removing people who have built lives here for 10, 15, 20 years. Both of those things are true at the same time."

The survey tested voter views on deportation based on length of residency. For undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for less than 2 years, 61% support deportation. For those resident for 5–10 years, support drops to 44% and opposition rises to 49%. For those resident for 10+ years, only 29% support deportation while 64% oppose it. For those with U.S.-born children, only 21% support deportation and 73% oppose it.

"The longer someone has been here, the more Arizonans want them to stay," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "These are not abstract policy preferences — they reflect the lived experience of communities where neighbors, coworkers, and community members have been here for decades."

Methodology: AZPOP conducted March 15–17, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.