POLL: Arizona Voters Demand Stricter Border Enforcement; Split on Path Forward

Arizona Voters Demand Stricter Border Enforcement; Split on Path Forward

67% Want Stronger Enforcement; Voters Divided on Reform vs. Enforcement-Only

PHOENIX (April 8th, 2024) – With immigration ranking as the second most important issue for Arizona voters heading into the 2024 election, a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights finds two-thirds of likely voters (67%) supporting stricter border enforcement policies. However, the survey reveals a significant philosophical split on the path forward — 18% of respondents favor comprehensive immigration reform as the primary solution, while 49% favor enforcement-first approaches.

The survey was conducted against the backdrop of record-high illegal border crossings in early 2024 and the collapse of a bipartisan Senate border security bill in February. Arizona's 370-mile shared border with Mexico gives the state unique exposure to immigration issues that shapes voter sentiment distinctly from national trends.

Among Republican voters, 91% support stricter border enforcement, with 58% favoring the strongest available option of dramatically increasing enforcement resources and personnel. Democratic voters are the most divided: 41% favor stricter enforcement (often framed as "smarter" enforcement), while 36% prioritize comprehensive reform, and 23% want current policies maintained.

Independent voters align more closely with Republicans on this issue: 71% support increased enforcement, while 19% prioritize reform. This Independent position on immigration has made it a powerful wedge issue for Republican candidates across multiple election cycles.

"Immigration is not just a Republican issue in Arizona — it's an everyone issue," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "When 41% of Democrats are calling for stricter enforcement, that tells you how intensely this state feels the direct impact of border policy."

On specific policy measures, broad bipartisan support exists for increased technology deployment at the border (75% support), additional Border Patrol agents (69% support), and a secure ID system for migrant tracking (63% support). More controversial measures receive less support: physical wall expansion (53% support, 44% oppose) and mandatory detention for asylum seekers (48% support, 45% oppose) are closely contested.

The survey also reveals a nuanced view of undocumented immigrants already in the country: 61% of Arizona voters support a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for 5+ years and have no criminal record, while 32% oppose such a pathway. This finding suggests that Arizona voters separate their desire for border enforcement from their views on the existing undocumented population.

"There's a real distinction between how voters feel about new crossings versus the existing undocumented population," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Most Arizona voters want the border controlled, but a majority also recognize the human complexity of deporting people who have built lives here."

Methodology: AZPOP conducted April 3–5, 2024. Blended 48% Live Caller / 52% IVR. Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034