AZPOP: Q1 2025 State of the State — Right Track Improves Slightly but Remains Negative

Q1 2025 State of the State — Right Track Improves Slightly but Remains Negative

Right Direction Climbs to 36%, Up 5 Points From Q1 2024; Border Optimism Offsets Economic Anxiety

PHOENIX (March 13th, 2025) – Arizona's directional sentiment has improved modestly compared to a year ago, with 36% of registered voters saying the state is heading in the right direction — up 5 points from 31% in Q1 2024, according to the latest AZPOP quarterly State of the State survey from OH Predictive Insights. However, a substantial 54% still say the state is on the wrong track, and 10% are unsure, indicating that widespread voter dissatisfaction persists despite the improvement.

The modest improvement in right-track sentiment is driven by two primary factors: Republican optimism following Trump's 2024 presidential victory and the new administration's aggressive immigration enforcement, and a partial improvement in overall economic confidence compared to the uncertainty of the late-Biden period.

Among Republicans, right-track sentiment has jumped from 14% in Q1 2024 (when Biden was president) to 62% in Q1 2025 — a 48-point partisan shift that reflects the "presidential bounce" effect seen whenever the White House changes party. Among Democrats, right-track sentiment has collapsed from 54% to 8%, an equally dramatic partisan flip in the opposite direction.

Independent voters remain broadly pessimistic: only 29% say right direction, while 59% say wrong track. Independent sentiment is the most economically sensitive of the three partisan cohorts, and the tariff-driven inflation concerns and economic uncertainty of early 2025 are weighing heavily on this group.

"The directional improvement is real but almost entirely attributable to the partisan flip in White House occupancy," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Strip out the partisan noise and the underlying economic anxiety — driven largely by tariffs and housing costs — tells a more complicated story."

On the issue priority front, the economy and cost of living remains the top concern, cited by 38% of Arizona voters as their primary worry. Immigration has declined from 28% to 17% as a primary concern — a direct reflection of sharply reduced border crossings under the new administration's policies — while housing affordability has risen to 19% (from 14% a year ago) as Arizona's real estate market continues to strain household budgets.

Water policy remains a top-tier concern unique to Arizona and the Mountain West: 22% of voters rank it among their top two policy priorities, the highest reading since AZPOP began tracking the issue in 2018.

Healthcare costs are also rising as a priority concern, cited by 24% of voters — up from 19% a year ago — as drug pricing and insurance cost issues continue to affect Arizona families. The Medicare drug price negotiation provisions enacted in 2022 have been partially reversed by executive action, generating concerns among Arizona seniors.

"The issue landscape is shifting," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Immigration has receded as a crisis concern, which is good news for the Trump administration, but the vacuum is being filled by housing, water, and healthcare cost concerns — all of which require proactive policy responses."

Methodology: AZPOP Q1 2025 State of the State conducted March 8–10, 2025. Blended 47% Live Caller / 53% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034