AZPOP: Arizona Right Track/Wrong Track — Q1 2024 State of the State

Arizona Right Track/Wrong Track — Q1 2024 State of the State

58% Say Wrong Track; Economy, Border Top Voter Concerns

PHOENIX (March 14th, 2024) – The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) quarterly State of the State survey finds 58% of Arizona registered voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction, compared to just 31% who say it is on the right track. Eleven percent are unsure. While the wrong-track number has improved modestly from 63% in Q4 2023, it remains elevated — reflecting persistent voter anxiety about economic conditions, border security, and the quality of political leadership at both the state and federal level.

The State of the State survey, which OH Predictive Insights has conducted quarterly since 2016, serves as a barometer of Arizona voter sentiment. The current reading of 31% right track is the second-lowest recorded since 2020, exceeded only by the Q4 2020 pandemic-era low of 26%.

Among Republicans, wrong-track sentiment is overwhelming at 82%, driven largely by disapproval of federal policies on immigration, inflation, and energy. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 54% saying the state is heading in the right direction — a reading that reflects satisfaction with Gov. Hobbs' first year in office and Arizona's continued economic growth. Independent voters are deeply pessimistic: 63% say wrong track, 26% right direction.

"The wrong-track number is elevated primarily because of federal-level frustration," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "When you dig into the crosstabs, voters are somewhat more positive about Arizona-specific issues like job growth and education investment, but national politics is dragging the overall number down."

Top concerns driving wrong-track sentiment: the economy and cost of living (cited by 41% of wrong-track voters), immigration and border security (28%), housing affordability (14%), crime (9%), and education (8%). Housing affordability has risen significantly as a concern, up from 6% in Q1 2023, reflecting Arizona's persistent real estate market challenges.

On Arizona-specific metrics, voter satisfaction is somewhat higher. Sixty-one percent rate Arizona's job market as "good" or "excellent," and 54% give the state's public schools a positive rating. However, only 34% are satisfied with the state's approach to water resource management — a growing concern given the ongoing Colorado River drought compact negotiations.

"Water is becoming a top-tier issue in Arizona politics," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "For a decade it was a background concern, but after the dramatic Lake Mead drawdowns and the cuts to Arizona's Colorado River allocation, voters are paying attention."

The federal wrong-track number is even more severe: 68% of Arizona voters say the country is heading in the wrong direction at the federal level, with only 26% saying right direction. This national pessimism is a significant headwind for Democratic incumbents across all levels of office.

Methodology: AZPOP Q1 State of the State conducted March 9–11, 2024. Blended 47% Live Caller / 53% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034