AZPOP: Tracking Federal vs State Satisfaction — Arizona Voters More Negative About Washington Than Phoenix

Tracking Federal vs State Satisfaction — Arizona Voters More Negative About Washington

68% Wrong Track Federally; 54% Wrong Track on Arizona State Direction; Bipartisan D.C. Frustration

PHOENIX (July 31st, 2025) – Arizona voters express significantly greater frustration with the federal government than with state governance, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. While 54% of voters say Arizona state government is heading in the wrong direction — itself a high wrong-track reading — a much larger 68% say the federal government in Washington is on the wrong track. Only 24% say the country is heading in the right direction at the federal level, compared to 36% who are positive about Arizona's state trajectory.

The gap between federal wrong-track (68%) and state wrong-track (54%) — 14 percentage points — is one of the largest divergences between federal and state satisfaction recorded in AZPOP's tracking history. It reflects both the intensity of partisan polarization around federal institutions and the fact that Arizona's state government, while not universally popular, has delivered several concrete accomplishments (the education budget deal, water infrastructure investment) that have provided a positive state-level narrative.

Interestingly, the federal wrong-track sentiment is bipartisan in a way that the state wrong-track is not. Among Republicans, 54% say wrong track on the federal direction — a striking finding that reflects dissatisfaction with the pace of change on economic issues, frustration with Washington dysfunction, and the impact of tariff-driven inflation even among Trump supporters. Among Democrats, the federal wrong-track number is a near-universal 91%. Among Independents, 71% say federal wrong track.

"Washington's dysfunction is deeply bipartisan in the eyes of Arizona voters," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Republicans are frustrated that their president hasn't delivered the economic improvements they expected. Democrats are frustrated at the policy direction. And Independents are frustrated with the entire system. That's a bipartisan indictment of federal governance."

The state-level wrong-track is more cleanly partisan: 78% of Democrats say wrong track on state direction (reflecting opposition to Republican legislative priorities), while only 31% of Republicans say wrong track on state government. Independent voters are at 59% wrong track on state direction.

The survey tested voter views on the appropriate division of responsibilities between federal and state governments. Sixty-seven percent of Arizona voters believe that state governments should have more authority over healthcare and education policy relative to the federal government — a finding that reflects Arizona's strong states' rights tradition and dissatisfaction with federal management of both policy areas.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted July 26–28, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.