AZPOP: Q1 2026 State of the State — Economic Pessimism Deepens Ahead of Midterms

Q1 2026 State of the State — Economic Pessimism Deepens Ahead of Midterms

Wrong Track Worsens to 60%; Healthcare, Housing, and Tariffs Drive Voter Anxiety

PHOENIX (March 5th, 2026) – Arizona voters are entering the 2026 midterm election year in a deeply pessimistic mood, with 60% saying the state is heading in the wrong direction and only 30% saying it is on the right track, according to the latest AZPOP quarterly State of the State survey from OH Predictive Insights. Ten percent are unsure. The wrong-track number has worsened 6 points since Q1 2025 and represents the highest level of voter dissatisfaction since Q1 2021.

The deterioration in Arizona's directional sentiment reflects a perfect storm of economic anxieties: tariff-driven inflation has pushed consumer prices 8.2% above 2023 levels in the Phoenix metro area, the housing affordability crisis has worsened, healthcare costs continue to rise, and water supply concerns have intensified following a particularly dry winter with below-average snowpack in the Colorado River headwaters.

For the first time in the AZPOP State of the State series, voters are simultaneously pessimistic about both the federal direction (67% wrong track) and the state direction (60% wrong track). Historically, Arizona voters have shown more satisfaction with state governance than federal governance. The convergence of both numbers at high wrong-track levels indicates a broad, multi-dimensional voter frustration that will be difficult for any incumbent to escape in the fall.

"This is the worst directional environment we've measured heading into a midterm since 2010," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "In 2010, the wrong-track number powered a historic Republican wave. Whether 2026 produces a similar wave, a smaller one, or something entirely different depends heavily on the candidates and the specific issues driving the election."

The partisan breakdown shows Republicans at 48% wrong track — a striking figure given that Republicans control the presidency and have been in the legislative majority in Arizona. The Republican wrong-track number reflects primarily economic dissatisfaction rather than ideological opposition; among Republican wrong-track voters, 74% cite the economy and cost of living as their primary concern.

Democrats are 72% wrong track, driven by opposition to federal policy direction. Independent voters are 64% wrong track — the metric that most directly translates into electoral impact, given Arizona's large Independent voter bloc.

The issue priority picture heading into the midterm cycle: healthcare costs (34%, up from 19% two years ago), economy and cost of living (28%), immigration (19%), housing affordability (12%), and water policy (7%). The dramatic rise of healthcare as a priority concern represents the single biggest shift in Arizona's issue landscape since AZPOP began quarterly tracking.

"Healthcare is the issue of the 2026 cycle in Arizona," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Any candidate without a compelling healthcare cost message is entering the race at a fundamental disadvantage."

Methodology: AZPOP Q1 2026 State of the State conducted March 1–3, 2026. Blended 47% Live Caller / 53% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034