AZPOP: Q3 2025 State of the State — Arizona Wrong Track Edges Up as Tariff Concerns Mount

Q3 2025 State of the State — Arizona Wrong Track Edges Up as Tariff Concerns Mount

Wrong Track Rises to 57% in Q3; Housing and Healthcare Cost Concerns Intensify

PHOENIX (September 11th, 2025) – Arizona's directional pessimism has worsened modestly heading into the fall of 2025, with 57% of registered voters saying the state is on the wrong track — up 3 points from 54% in Q1 — according to the latest AZPOP quarterly State of the State survey from OH Predictive Insights. Thirty-three percent say the state is heading in the right direction, and 10% are unsure.

The worsening wrong-track number reflects a convergence of economic anxieties that have built through 2025. Tariff-driven price increases on consumer goods — particularly electronics, appliances, and building materials — have been felt broadly by Arizona households. Housing costs have continued to rise, with Phoenix-area median home prices now at $468,000 — up 6% from a year ago. Healthcare premium increases averaging 11% for individual market plans have strained family budgets.

Among Republicans, the wrong-track number has risen from 38% in Q1 to 44% in Q3 — a significant 6-point increase that reflects growing economic frustration among the president's own party base. This Republican wrong-track increase is primarily concentrated among lower-income and rural Republican households most exposed to tariff cost increases.

"The Republican wrong-track number rising to 44% is the most politically significant finding in this survey," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "When nearly half of your party's base is saying wrong track 9 months into your presidency, the economic messaging isn't working."

Issue priorities have shifted notably since Q1. Healthcare costs have risen from 24% to 31% as a top-cited concern, overtaking immigration (now at 17%, down from 22%). Housing affordability is at 22%, up from 19%. The economy and cost of living remains top at 38% but is increasingly defined by tariff and healthcare price concerns rather than residual post-pandemic inflation.

The Arizona-specific conditions are modestly more positive than the national environment: 42% of voters rate Arizona's job market as good or excellent (vs. 34% nationally), and the state's continued technology sector growth — with new semiconductor facilities opening — provides a positive economic narrative. However, the housing crisis and healthcare cost surge are cutting into the state's economic advantage.

Methodology: AZPOP Q3 State of the State conducted September 6–8, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.