POLL: Arizona Voter Confidence in Election Integrity Improves — But Partisan Gap Persists

Arizona Voter Confidence in Election Integrity Improves — But Partisan Gap Persists

61% Confident in 2024 Election Integrity, Up from 51% in 2022; Republicans Still Less Confident

PHOENIX (December 5th, 2024) – Voter confidence in Arizona's election administration has improved significantly following the 2024 elections, with 61% of registered voters saying they are very or somewhat confident in the integrity of the election process — up from 51% after the 2022 midterms, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights.

The improvement reflects several factors: the absence of significant post-election litigation in 2024 (unlike 2022's extended certification battles), Maricopa County's improvements to its election administration procedures, and the relative clarity and speed of the 2024 results certification process. The fact that Arizona's results — including Trump's presidential victory and Gallego's Senate win — were certified without major incident has helped restore confidence across the partisan spectrum.

Among Democrats, confidence is at 79% (very + somewhat confident), reflecting satisfaction with the legitimate certification of Gallego's Senate victory. Among Republicans, confidence has risen from 34% after the contentious 2022 cycle to 47% in 2024 — still the lowest of any partisan group, but a meaningful 13-point improvement.

"The 2024 cycle demonstrated that Arizona can run a smooth, credible election that both parties accept," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "That's not nothing — it represents real progress from the dysfunction and litigation of 2022."

The persistent Republican confidence deficit — 47% versus 79% for Democrats — reflects the ongoing impact of election denial narratives that have been promoted by some Republican politicians and media figures since 2020. Among Republicans who describe themselves as MAGA supporters, only 31% express confidence in Arizona's election integrity. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 64% are confident — essentially matching the statewide average.

The survey tested voter support for several election integrity measures. Voter ID requirements draw 72% support (including 55% of Democrats). Paper ballot requirements for all elections get 78% support. Post-election audits of a random sample of ballots earn 81% support. Extending early voting availability draws 65% support, with Republicans and Democrats essentially tied on this measure.

"There's a broad consensus around basic election transparency and verification measures," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "The political fight is about the framing, but the underlying policy preferences — ID, paper records, audits — are broadly popular."

Methodology: AZPOP conducted November 30 – December 2, 2024. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.