Utah Uninterested in Trump Re-Run

Majority of Utah Voters Say Trump Should Not Run in 2024

XLSX Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (December 8th, 2021)- As President Joe Biden suffers his lowest ratings since taking office, Utah Republicans seem to be the only party in the state turning their attention to former President Donald Trump this far ahead of the next presidential election. According to the latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), more than half (54%) of Utah's electorate does not want to see Trump run again in 2024.

This UTPOP was conducted November 5th – November 15th, 2021 and surveyed 671 Utah registered voters, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

With only 35% of Utah voters saying they believe that Donald Trump should run for re-election, the bulk of this sentiment comes from Utah Republicans. However, although 53% of Republican voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, this belief is not shared widely outside of the GOP. Only 20% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats (9%) believe that Trump should run again.

Voters who want to see a 'Trump comeback' in 2024 tend to be younger, particularly among Utah Republicans. Among all Utah voters, only 23% of 55+ year-olds think that Trump should run again, compared to 41% of 18–54-year-olds. There is also a split in opinion among Utah Republicans by religious affiliation: 46% of Republicans who are members of the LDS Church think Trump should run in 2024 while two thirds (67%) of non-LDS Republicans want to see him run again.

"Even in a state that former President Trump won in the 2020 election, a majority of Utah's electorate isn't interested in a 'Trump comeback,'" said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "With only a fifth of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting Trump to run again, he may not be a viable candidate in the Beehive State next time around."

Diving deeper into the former President's chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. If Donald Trump does run again, 43% of Utah Republicans would vote for him in a primary given the option of eight other prominent Republicans. Falling behind Trump's 43% support, Mitt Romney comes in second with 20% of the Utah GOP vote. No other potential candidate receives double-digit support.

If Donald Trump does not run again in 2024, Mitt Romney (21%) and Ron DeSantis (18%) statistically tie for the lead. Mike Pence trails in third place at 13% while no other potential candidate cracks double digits – including Donald Trump Jr. According to the survey, Trump Jr. sits at 8%.

"Without the former president on the ballot, however, the 2024 GOP Primary becomes a whole lot more interesting," said Noble.

The share of those unsure whom to support more-than doubles from 10% Unsure with Trump on the ballot to 23% Unsure without him.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 5th – November 15th, 2021, from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 671 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.8%. The sample also contained a subsample of 333 self-identified registered Republicans, with a MoE of +/- 5.4%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 398-0998