Utah 2024 GOP Presidential Primary Preview

Utah 2024 GOP Presidential Primary Preview

Trump's support remains untouched while DeSantis loses ground

XLSX Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (April 4, 2023)- Less than a year away from Super Tuesday, the GOP primary presidential election is picking up steam. In the second of four quarterly surveys in 2023, O.H. Predictive Insights' (OHPI) Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) sought to measure Utah Republican voters' preferences for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Republican voters in Utah are standing firmly behind former President Donald Trump in his bid to re-assume the Oval Office.

This UTPOP was conducted from March 14th, 2023 – March 23rd, 2023. The survey sample was 600 Utah registered voters with a margin of error of ± 4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah registered Republicans, yielding a margin of error of ± 5.64% with this group.

When given a list of 10 potential Republican nominees, Republican voters in Utah once again proved that former President Donald Trump is firmly in the driver's seat, holding a commanding lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Four in ten (41%) Republican voters in Utah indicated that they would cast their ballot for Trump, compared to only 23% for DeSantis. Mike Pence, who has spent considerable effort in attempts to distance himself from his former boss, recorded 10% support. Former South Carolina Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who announced her campaign for America's chief executive last month, yielded 5%.

"DeSantis' campaign has not yet gotten off the ground, and despite Trump's legal and political woes, Trump's base of support remains fiercely loyal," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "The Trump team is taking advantage of this, launching a series of coordinated messaging campaigns to dissuade potential DeSantis supporters, attempting to end his campaign before it starts."

While Trump nearly doubles DeSantis' support in this poll, a deeper look into the demographics shows significantly varied levels of support for these two candidates. Trump performs significantly better than DeSantis in lower-income, lower-education groups (including a 48-point lead among those with a high school diploma or less), while DeSantis is more competitive among college graduates (DeSantis: 28%, Trump: 27%) and those with a household income over $100,000 (DeSantis: 36%, Trump: 34%).

"If this trend continues, it will become an increasingly difficult road for DeSantis to navigate through this electorate," said Noble. "If he intends to throw his hat in the ring, DeSantis will need to campaign hard and heavy to cut into Trump's sizeable advantage among non-college-educated Republicans."

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from March 14th – March 23rd, 2023 from a Utah Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 4.0%. Among the 600 voters surveyed, 302 were Utah Registered Republicans, yielding a MoE of +/- 5.64% with this group. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, O.H. Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 390-5248

Mike Noble, O.H. Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837