UTPOP: Trump Dominates Utah GOP Presidential Primary — Leads 68% to 22%

UTPOP: Trump Dominates Utah GOP Presidential Primary — Leads 68% to 22%

Former President Holds 46-Point Lead; DeSantis Distant Second in Beehive State

SALT LAKE CITY (January 25th, 2024) – Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in the Utah Republican presidential primary, besting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 68% to 22% among likely Republican primary voters in the Beehive State, according to the latest Utah Public Opinion Pulse (UTPOP) survey from OH Predictive Insights. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley registers 7%, while all other candidates and undecided voters account for just 3%.

The result represents a dramatic shift from Utah's 2016 and 2020 political posture. In 2016, third-party candidate Evan McMullin received 21% of the Utah vote — the best performance by a third-party candidate in a state in decades — and Trump won Utah with just 45%, well below his national Republican average. In 2020, Trump improved to 58% in Utah. The 2024 survey suggests Utah Republicans have fully consolidated behind Trump, with little remaining reservoir of resistance to the former president.

"Utah was the epicenter of Republican anti-Trump sentiment in 2016," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "That resistance has largely evaporated. The party has moved, and Utah Republicans have moved with it."

Among very conservative Utah Republicans, Trump leads 74% to 18%. Among moderate Republicans — traditionally the most Trump-skeptical cohort in the state — Trump still leads 58% to 31%. Even among Utah Republicans who voted for McMullin in 2022's Senate race, Trump leads DeSantis 52% to 38%, suggesting that the McMullin coalition was primarily motivated by opposition to incumbent Sen. Mike Lee rather than principled Trump opposition.

DeSantis' poor national campaign rollout, including a disastrous Twitter Spaces launch in May 2023 and his struggles in early primary states, have significantly eroded his initial position as the leading Trump alternative. His fundraising has declined sharply, and his debate performances have not generated the momentum needed to challenge Trump.

Haley, who has shown the most resilience among Trump alternatives nationally, registers just 7% in Utah — a state where her brand of business-friendly internationalism and foreign policy hawkishness might have been expected to resonate. Her low numbers suggest Utah Republicans are simply not looking for an alternative to Trump at this stage.

"The Republican primary in Utah is effectively over," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Barring a significant shock to the race, Trump will win Utah's delegates comfortably in the March caucuses."

On a hypothetical general election ballot test, Trump leads President Biden 54% to 39% among all Utah registered voters — a competitive-looking number compared to Trump's 58-37 win in Utah in 2020, suggesting Biden's weakness is partially offset by anti-Trump sentiment.

Methodology: UTPOP conducted January 20–22, 2024. Blended 44% Live Caller / 56% IVR. Utah Likely Republican Primary Voters. n=500 with ±4.4% MOE. Weighted for gender, region, age, education.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034