Three Things To Know About The AZ-08 Special Election

PHOENIX (April 23, 2018) – Tomorrow marks another all-important Special Election — Arizona's Eighth Congressional District. OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) highlights three interesting trends from the mountain of data available regarding early ballot returns.

1. The Women Surge Didn't Last

AZ-08 Early Ballot Returns by Gender Over Time

As ballots poured in the first couple of days, the electorate seemed driven by an influx of women, growing across all parties, led mostly by Democrats with a double-digit gender gap. Republicans broke 50% female by the second day, while Independent ballots lagged — indicating that Independents may not swing overwhelmingly to Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni. As ballots tapered off, the gender makeup by party stabilized and held roughly the same.

2. Republican Areas Are Returning More Total Ballots

AZ-08 Returned Ballot Geography — Republican vs. Democratic Areas

Maps showing returned ballots as of April 19 reveal a large number coming from surrounding precincts in the North and West — mostly Republican areas that still voted for Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the 2016 sheriff's race. In the city, the highest concentration is in areas where Republican candidate Debbie Lesko performed best in the primary, indicating a geographic overperformance for her in early voting.

3. Democrats Are Struggling In The Bigger Areas

AZ-08 Returned Ballots by Legislative District — Democratic Share

The chart shows returned ballots by legislative district, shaded by the percentage marked Democratic. While Democrats capture more ballots in smaller areas, they are falling behind in larger districts — especially LD1 — and struggling in the largest, LD22. To pull off a win, Tipirneni will need larger crossover support in the more populated areas.

Media Contact: Tiffany Traver, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-329-9460