Is Katie Hobbs a Cartel Crony? Arizona Voters Chime In

Is Gov. Katie Hobbs a Cartel Crony? Arizona Voters Chime In

Arizona Voter Opinions on Allegations Against Hobbs Accepting Bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel

XLSX Toplines and Crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (April 20, 2023)– In late February, the Arizona Legislature held a session to hear testimony surrounding the 2022 Midterm elections in Arizona, during which accusations that Katie Hobbs, among several other politicians, accepted bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel. O.H. Predictive Insights' (OHPI) latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) asked Arizona voters their opinions on these allegations.

This AZPOP, conducted from April 4–11, 2023, surveyed 1,000 registered voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of ± 3.1%.

"Partisanship runs deep, however, as an institution, they must be mindful of what they give voice to because rhetoric has consequences," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "Because of that, there is a quarter of Arizona voters that believe that, basically, Arizona's Governor is in bed with the Mexican drug cartels — what a wild time in politics."

There is no majority share of voters that feel one way or another about the allegations against Katie Hobbs. However, a plurality say they do not believe she is guilty of accepting bribes from the Sinaloa Cartel. Overall, the Arizona Governor has secured confidence with a net +14 saying that the allegations are not true.

The groups driving the share of Arizona voters who do not believe the allegations against Hobbs and other politicians are 65% of Democrats – especially older Democrats (ages 55+: 85%) – and 55% of college graduates. Other demographics spurring the sentiment that the allegations are not true include:

• HHI $100k+: 46%
• Those with a high vote propensity: 46%
• White, non-Hispanic voters: 44%

The share of voters who do believe the allegations is mainly comprised of Republicans (41%) and GOP subsets:

• Republicans identifying as supporters of Trump: 57%
• Younger Republicans (ages 18-54): 45%
• Republican women: 45%

Demographics driving the share of Arizona voters who are unsure include Independents (41%), rural voters (41%), Republicans identifying as supporters of the GOP (41%), and voters with a high school or less education (40%).

On April 12th – the day after this AZPOP closed – Arizona Republican lawmaker Liz Harris was expelled from the Arizona Legislature in a bipartisan vote for organizing a testimony making unsubstantiated accusations against several public officials for alleged involvement in bribery schemes with the Sinaloa Cartel. While Rep. Liz Harris' expulsion did not have an effect on the results of this AZPOP due to timing, a deeper look at Hobbs' job approval, the Arizona Legislature's approval, and opinions on the allegations can provide a directional idea of how voters might feel about the Legislature's decision.

"Governor Katie Hobbs is net positive in her job approval rating among Arizona voters 100 days into office, with Democrats united behind her, Republicans less so united against her, and slightly above water with the all-important Independent voters," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research.

When it comes to the State Legislature, voters are more disapproving. Arizona voters give the Legislature a net -11 rating, with 34% approving, 45% disapproving, and 21% with no opinion. Similar shares of Republicans (48%), Democrats (41%), and Independents (46%) are displeased with the State Legislature's performance. There is an 18-point net difference between Hobbs' job approval and voters' job approval of the Arizona State Legislature.

"It is interesting to see Arizona voters give Governor Hobbs a thumbs up and a thumbs down to the Arizona Legislature," said Noble.

Taking a deeper dive into the segments of Arizona voters who do and do not believe the allegations against Katie Hobbs, the AZPOP found a clear correlation between voters' approval of the Governor's job performance and whether they believe the allegations against her.

Approval of Hobbs' job performance is a substantial indicator of whether a voter believes the allegations against her. Overarchingly, a large majority of those who approve of the Governor's performance do not believe the bribery accusations (71%). The converse follows a similar pattern, but by a much smaller margin. Half of voters who disapprove of her performance believe the allegations. However, those disapproving of Hobbs are significantly more unsure of their opinion on the allegations (37%) compared to those giving Hobbs approval (19%).

"Katie Hobbs' net-positive performance review of her first 100 days in office could very well be fueling confidence in her innocence for Arizona's electorate," said Mike Noble. "The meaningful share of those disapproving of Hobbs who are unsure about the allegations could potentially link to the evidence – or lack thereof – presented in the hearing; these voters aren't convinced one way or the other."

Approval of the Arizona Legislature does not have a clear correlation to opinions on the allegations – an equal share of voters approving and disapproving of the Legislature do not believe the accusations against Katie Hobbs. However, voters giving the Legislature approval are nearly 10 points less likely to believe the allegations are true (23%) than voters who are displeased with the Legislature (32%).

"Although the Arizona Legislature is suffering from a net-negative approval rating overall, voters with either opinion on the Legislature equally do not believe the allegations of bribery against Katie Hobbs," said Mike Noble.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by O.H. Predictive Insights from April 4th–11th, 2023 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 1,000 completed surveys, with a MoE of ± 3.1%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 390-5248

Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837