POLL OF RECORD: Gallego Defeats Lake — Post-Election Arizona Analysis

Gallego Wins by 2.7 Points; Independents, Suburban Women Decide the Race

PHOENIX (November 14th, 2024) – OH Predictive Insights' post-election analysis of Arizona's 2024 U.S. Senate race confirms what our pre-election polling suggested was likely: Ruben Gallego defeated Kari Lake by 2.7 percentage points, 51.0% to 48.3%, in a race that was decided by Independent voters, suburban women, and record-high turnout in Maricopa County.

The result marks the second consecutive statewide defeat for Lake, following her narrow 2022 gubernatorial loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs. The pattern of Lake's two defeats is strikingly similar: strong performance with Republicans and rural voters, but an inability to overcome structural deficits with Independent voters and suburban women.

Our final pre-election AZPOP survey (conducted October 28–30) had projected Gallego winning by 3 points, making this one of our most accurate predictions of the cycle. The model accurately captured the decisive role of Independent voters, among whom Gallego won by 11 points in the actual results — 54% to 43%.

"Kari Lake ran essentially the same race in 2024 that she ran in 2022," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "She maxed out the Republican base, she dominated rural Arizona, and she still lost because you cannot win a statewide Arizona race while losing Independents by double digits."

Exit polling and precinct-level data tell the story of the race in granular detail. In Maricopa County, Gallego won 52% to 47%, with particularly strong performance in the East Valley suburbs (Tempe, Chandler, Scottsdale precincts with high concentrations of college-educated voters). Among women voters statewide, Gallego won 56% to 44%. Among college-educated voters, Gallego won 59% to 41%.

Lake's performance was strong where expected: she won rural Arizona 62% to 37%, carried voters without college degrees 54% to 46%, and held 94% of self-identified Republicans. But even her Republican consolidation was not enough to overcome the math of a purple state where Democrats and Independents combined to form a majority coalition.

The abortion issue — specifically Proposition 139, the Abortion Access Act, which passed by 20 points — appears to have been a significant contributing factor to Gallego's coalition. Exit polling suggests that 73% of Arizona voters for whom abortion was the top issue voted for Gallego.

"Prop 139 was a turnout machine for Democrats and a persuasion vehicle for Independents," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Lake's hard-line position on reproductive rights cost her votes she needed."

Gallego's victory gives Democrats two U.S. Senate seats from Arizona for the first time since 1952, alongside Sen. Mark Kelly. The result further cements Arizona's transformation into a genuine swing state and sets up a competitive 2026 gubernatorial race as the next major battleground.

Methodology: Post-election analysis based on official election results, precinct data, and OH Predictive Insights exit survey of 2,456 actual voters across Arizona conducted November 5, 2024.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034