POLL: Gallego Holds Early Lead Over Lake in Arizona Senate Race

Gallego Holds Early Lead Over Lake in Arizona Senate Race

Democrat Leads by 6 Points; Lake Trails Badly with Independent Voters

PHOENIX (February 14th, 2024) – The first comprehensive head-to-head survey of Arizona's 2024 U.S. Senate race finds Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake 49% to 43% among likely Arizona voters, according to a new OH Predictive Insights AZPOP poll. Eight percent of respondents remain undecided at this early stage of the campaign.

The race to fill the seat being vacated by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is already drawing national attention as one of the most closely watched contests of the 2024 election cycle. Lake, who narrowly lost the 2022 gubernatorial race to Gov. Katie Hobbs by just 0.7 percentage points, entered the race with strong name recognition and an energized conservative base. However, her struggles with Independent and moderate voters — the very bloc that cost her the governorship — appear to be persisting into her Senate campaign.

Among Independent voters, Gallego leads Lake by a striking 52% to 35% margin. This 17-point Independent deficit for Lake represents a significant structural challenge that mirrors her 2022 loss, when Independents broke heavily for Hobbs.

"Kari Lake has a loyal, passionate Republican base, but her deficit with Independents is essentially the same story we saw in 2022," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "In a purple state like Arizona, you simply cannot win a statewide race while losing Independents by 17 points."

Lake performs strongly among Republicans, earning 87% support from GOP voters. However, Gallego holds 91% of Democrats, giving him a slightly more consolidated base. Notably, 11% of Republican respondents say they would vote for Gallego over Lake, a figure that reflects the ongoing intra-party tensions within the Arizona Republican Party following Lake's continued claims about the 2022 election being stolen.

Geographically, Gallego leads in Maricopa County (51% to 42%), Pima County (58% to 36%), and among voters in smaller urban areas. Lake's strength comes from rural Arizona, where she leads 58% to 34%.

The survey also tested favorability ratings for both candidates. Gallego holds a net favorable rating of +12 (47% favorable, 35% unfavorable), while Lake's net favorable rating stands at -4 (44% favorable, 48% unfavorable) — a reflection of her polarizing political profile.

"Gallego has smartly positioned himself as a pragmatic, moderate voice on immigration — an issue where Democrats have historically struggled in Arizona," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "That positioning is paying dividends in his favorability numbers, especially in the Phoenix suburbs."

The Senate race is expected to be among the most expensive in the nation, with both parties viewing Arizona as a must-win in their respective paths to a Senate majority. Gallego has already built a formidable fundraising operation, while Lake is expected to draw substantial small-dollar donations from her national following.

Methodology: The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted February 9–11, 2024, using a blended methodology of 47% Live Caller and 53% IVR. The survey targeted Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. Sample demographics were weighted to reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education level. Sample size: 600 with ±4.0% MOE. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034