POLL: Arizona Senate Race Tightens — Gallego Leads Lake by 4

Arizona Senate Race Tightens — Gallego Leads Lake by 4

Race Has Narrowed from 6 Points in February; Undecideds Shrink

PHOENIX (July 22nd, 2024) – The Arizona United States Senate race has narrowed significantly over the past five months, with Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego's lead over Republican Kari Lake shrinking from 6 points to just 4, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Gallego now leads 50% to 46%, with only 4% of likely voters remaining undecided — a sharp drop from the 8% undecided in February's survey, suggesting that most voters have now formed firm opinions about both candidates.

The tightening of the race reflects two key dynamics: Lake's improving consolidation of the Republican base (now at 92%, up from 87% in February) and a modest improvement in her Independent voter standing (from 35% to 41%, though still trailing Gallego's 53% among Independents).

"This race has tightened exactly as we expected it would," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Lake has done a better job of consolidating Republicans, and she's chipped away at Gallego's Independent advantage. But Gallego still has the structural advantage he needs to win."

The July survey was conducted against the backdrop of significant national political turbulence, including President Biden's July 21st announcement that he would not seek re-election. The survey was completed before that announcement, meaning the full electoral impact of Biden's withdrawal has yet to be measured in Arizona polling.

Fundraising data released this month shows both campaigns have built formidable war chests. Gallego has raised $28.4 million to date, compared to $19.7 million for Lake. However, outside spending from national party organizations and PACs is expected to dwarf candidate fundraising in the final months of the race.

On key issues, Gallego leads on healthcare (+14), education (+11), and climate/environment (+18), while Lake leads on border security/immigration (+16) and crime (+9). Economic management is essentially tied, with Gallego at 47% and Lake at 46% on voter trust.

"Immigration remains Lake's strongest suit, and it's the issue she hammers relentlessly," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Whether that's enough to overcome Gallego's advantages on the economy and healthcare in a purple state will be the central question of this race."

Favorability ratings show Gallego at +14 net favorable (50% favorable, 36% unfavorable) and Lake at -1 net favorable (46% favorable, 47% unfavorable). Lake's continued net-negative favorability is her most persistent structural vulnerability.

The race is rated a toss-up by most national election forecasters, and Arizona is expected to see unprecedented advertising spending in the Senate contest through November.

Methodology: The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted July 17–19, 2024, using a blended methodology of 45% Live Caller and 55% IVR. Survey targeted Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. Sample size: 600 with ±4.0% MOE. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034