POLL: Toma Leads Arizona 2026 GOP Governor Primary

Toma Leads Arizona 2026 GOP Governor Primary — Leads Sheridan 28% to 19%

Former House Speaker Opens Modest Lead; More Than Half of GOP Primary Voters Still Undecided

PHOENIX (April 9th, 2026) – With five months until the August Republican primary, former Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma has established a modest lead in the 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Toma leads Maricopa County Sheriff Jerry Sheridan 28% to 19%, with state Senate President Warren Petersen in third at 12%. A significant 41% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided or have not settled on a candidate, leaving the race highly fluid.

Toma's lead reflects the advantages of his well-organized campaign infrastructure, early fundraising strength — he has raised $3.2 million to Sheridan's $1.8 million and Petersen's $1.1 million — and strong relationships with the Arizona business community. As former House Speaker, Toma is well-known to Republican elected officials and activists throughout the state, and he has built a donor network that spans both the traditional establishment wing and Trump-aligned grassroots conservatives.

Sheridan, whose high-profile role as Maricopa County's top law enforcement officer has kept him in the public eye, is performing strongly with voters who prioritize law enforcement and border security — his core constituency. His 19% support among likely Republican primary voters is notable given his more recent entry into the race.

"This is a classic three-way race at an early stage, with a massive undecided pool that will determine the outcome," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "Toma has the best-organized campaign right now, but the Republican primary electorate is looking for something — a more electrifying personality, or a cleaner identity — and none of the candidates have fully delivered that yet."

Geographically, Toma leads in the Phoenix metro area (Maricopa County), where his legislative career is best known. Sheridan, whose turf as sheriff is also Maricopa County, splits the county with Toma and trails in rural areas, where Petersen holds surprising strength given his legislative profile.

On the key question of a potential Hobbs vs. Republican general election matchup, the survey finds Toma in the best position against the incumbent: Toma trails Hobbs 45% to 47% (within the margin of error), while Sheridan trails 43% to 49%, and Petersen trails 40% to 51%. All three Republicans trail Hobbs in a general election matchup — a reflection of Hobbs' advantage among Independents and her incumbency.

"The Republican nominee needs to close the Independent deficit to beat Hobbs," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "Toma is the best positioned to do that right now, but his numbers with Independents still need work."

Trump has not yet weighed in on the Arizona governor's race. A Trump endorsement would likely scramble the current standings significantly, as his support base represents approximately 35% of the Republican primary electorate.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted April 4–6, 2026. Blended 46% Live Caller / 54% IVR. Arizona Likely Republican Primary Voters. n=400 with ±4.9% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034