POLL: Arizona's Competitive House Districts — Democrats and Republicans Both Vulnerable

Arizona's Competitive House Districts — Democrats and Republicans Both Vulnerable

AZ-01 and AZ-06 Both Within Margin of Error; Economic Environment Cuts Both Ways

PHOENIX (April 23rd, 2026) – Both of Arizona's highly competitive U.S. House districts are within the margin of error with four months until the 2026 general election, according to the latest AZPOP district-level polling from OH Predictive Insights. In AZ-01, the Republican incumbent leads 48% to 46%, while in AZ-06, the Democratic incumbent leads 47% to 45% — true toss-ups that will be among the most closely watched congressional races nationally.

AZ-01, covering northeastern Maricopa County and reaching into Gila, Pinal, and Yavapai counties, has been competitive since redistricting created a 50/50 district in 2022. The current Republican incumbent won their last race by 2.1 points. The district's mix of suburban Phoenix voters, rural communities, and significant Latino population makes it a genuine battleground where economic conditions and immigration policy both carry decisive weight.

AZ-06, located in the East Valley suburbs of Maricopa County (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, northeastern Tempe), is home to a high concentration of college-educated professionals and a growing population of younger families. The Democratic incumbent won in 2024 by 3.8 points, but the district's Republican ancestral lean and the challenging 2026 environment make it a top Republican target.

"Both of these districts are going to be decided by 2–3 points at most," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The candidates, their campaigns, and the money both sides put in are going to matter enormously. This isn't just about the national environment."

In AZ-01, the top voter concerns are immigration/border security (32%), the economy and cost of living (29%), and water policy (18%). The economic issue is cross-cutting — voters who are most concerned about the economy narrowly favor the Democratic challenger (49% to 45%), a potential opportunity in a district where economic anxiety is running high.

In AZ-06, the top concerns are healthcare costs (36%), the economy (27%), and housing affordability (21%). The Democratic incumbent leads on all three of these issues in terms of voter trust, which explains her ability to maintain a narrow lead despite the challenging national environment.

National party committees from both sides are expected to pour significant resources into both districts, with total outside spending projected to exceed $20 million in each race.

Methodology: District-level AZPOP surveys conducted April 18–20, 2026. Blended 45% Live Caller / 55% IVR. Arizona Likely Voters within each district. n=400 per district with ±4.9% MOE.