POLL: Trump's Job Approval Decreases

POLL: Trump's Job Approval Decreases

Biden and Warren tied with Trump in Arizona

PHOENIX (August 22nd, 2019)– Donald Trump narrowly captured Arizona's 11 electoral college votes in 2016 – besting Hillary Clinton by just 3.5 points.

A new poll released Thursday shows Trump facing a tougher climb to win the state in 2020. The poll shows that the Job Approval rate of Trump dropped 2-points from 49% to 47% and the disapproval rate increased from 50% to 52%. And former Vice President Joe Biden continues to top Trump in a head-to-head matchup. In fact, against five of the top Democratic presidential contenders, Trump doesn't receive more than 45 percent of the vote in this early look at 2020.

"The President's approval rating is lower than Lake Mead levels," Mike Noble said. "To win Arizona, Trump is going to have to do a better job of convincing voters he is the right man to lead on the economy and world affairs."

With so many already declared Democratic candidates in the race, OHPI took the top five based on their polling average from Real Clear Politics. The poll was conducted August 13–14th, with a sample of 600 respondents identified as likely voters. The medium utilized was a blended phone survey yielding a +/-4% MOE.

Of the top five candidates, only Biden and Warren are within the margin of error.

Arizona voters favor Trump over many of the more progressive candidates in the field. Only Warren and Buttigieg actually increased their support in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup compared to the last time the question was asked in May.

Even with Biden still leading Trump, the difference is becoming smaller from 5-points to 2-points compared with the May poll results. While Biden decreased in support, Warren gained 1-point more in support and is now only trailing Trump by 1-point in the Grand Canyon State.

"The biggest red flag is that Trump doesn't cross the 50 percent threshold in any of these hypothetical matchups and is hovering in the low-to-mid forties," said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights. "The data continues to indicate that Arizona will likely be a battleground state in the upcoming 2020 presidential election."

Methodology: This blended poll was conducted via live caller and IVR. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights on August 13, 2019, and August 14, 2019, from an Arizona likely 2020 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 402-5181