POLL: Democratic 2020 Primary

Biden Leads the Pack for Democratic Primary

Three-way race in Arizona

PHOENIX (November 19th, 2019)– After a disappointing summer nationally for Joe Biden, the former vice president can take solace in the Grand Canyon State: He maintains a healthy double-digit lead against his closest Democratic presidential primary competitors.

According to the latest OHPI survey, Biden is the top candidate among likely Democratic Presidential Primary voters in Arizona for the 2020 election garnering 29 percent support, with Elizabeth Warren in second earning 18 percent, and Bernie Sanders rounding out the top 3 with 16 percent. No other candidates received more than 10% support.

"Despite the historically large Democratic Primary field, it's actually a three-way race in Arizona with Joe Biden showing strongest support among many demographic groups," said Mike Noble, Chief of Research and Managing Partner of Phoenix-based research company OH Predictive Insights.

While Biden is leading state-wide, support varies across different parts of the state. More people (32%) in vote-rich Maricopa County say Biden is their preferred candidate — greater than the combined support for Warren and Sanders. However, further south in Pima County, both Biden and Sanders have double the support of Warren. Among the rest of Arizona's 15 counties, Warren leads Biden and Sanders by 5 points and 4 points, respectively.

Among Hispanic voters — a key constituency for Democrats in Arizona — Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are dominating the field with nearly 2 out of every 3 Hispanic voters saying that one of these two men is their preferred choice. In third place is Julian Castro, the only Latino still in the race, receiving 8% of the vote.

Education is proving to be another cause of division in the primary so far. Warren gains the support of nearly 1 in 3 Democratic voters who have a postgraduate degree. Among Democrats with only a Bachelor's degree, the race is much closer with only 6 points separating the 3 frontrunners. However, Joe Biden is doing nearly 3 times as well as Warren among voters without a college degree and almost twice as well as Sanders with this group.

Methodology: This survey was conducted via an opt-in online panel. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights between October 31, 2019, and November 8, 2019, among 900 Arizona registered voters. Among those respondents, those who self-identified as Democratic voters and also self-qualified as "Very likely to vote" in the Democratic Presidential Preference Election were asked the horserace question. The final sample size was 260 respondents, with an MoE of ± 6.08%. Numbers may not total 100%, due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 402-5181