Biden Losing Ground with Arizona Independents

Biden Losing Ground with Arizona Independents

Biden Still Wades Underwater Since September Slip

PHOENIX (November 19th, 2021)– President Joe Biden's job approval ratings in Arizona hit their lowest point this year in September, and his numbers have yet to rebound. According to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) conducted by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI), since his September slip, President Biden still wades underwater with his approval and favorability ratings – which now mirror the favorability ratings of former President Donald Trump.

This AZPOP survey was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, yielding a margin of error of +/-3.7%.

Grand Canyon State voters' combined sentiment remains unchanged since September. Biden is underwater by more than 10 points with a majority of Arizona registered voters disapproving of the job he is doing (55%) and just 42% approval. These numbers are driven by overwhelming disapproval from Republicans (86%) as well as the three in five Independents who also disapprove of Biden's job performance. Only 13% of Republicans and 35% of Independents are satisfied with the president's job performance.

Among those Democrats who approve of President Biden, there is a statistically significant split by age. More than three quarters (77%) of Democrats ages 18-54 years old approve of the job Biden is doing (net approval of +57%). Democrats ages 55+ give the president near-unanimous approval (92%), with a net approval of +85%.

"It isn't surprising that Biden's approval ratings among Democrats and Republicans are contrary of each other," said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "However, Independents in a key battleground state rescinding their approval of the President is worth paying attention to if Biden is looking to improve his numbers in Arizona."

President Biden has also lost ground since July among key constituencies: suburban women, parents, and middle-income voters.

In terms of his handling of top issues, President Biden maintains negative net approval marks on immigration (-31%), the economy (-14%), and foreign policy (-17%). However, on COVID-19 (-2%) and the environment (-4%), Biden receives relatively fine marks.

Comparing President Biden to preceding President Trump, their previously polarized favorability ratings among Arizona voters currently match. Biden's net favorability sits at -11%, statistically equivalent to Trump's -12%. More than half view both unfavorably (Biden: 54% unfav, Trump: 55% unfav).

"It throws a curveball to see in the data that Biden has lost ground among many of the groups who put him over the finish line in 2020 such as Independents, college-educated voters, and suburbanites," said Noble. "With his ratings still steady since September, he still has time to regain the support from these groups prior to the next election."

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021 from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034
Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 398-0998