OHPI/ABC15 Poll: Arizona's Moderates Align with Democrat Voters

With similar concerns over the issues of the state and the president, moderate voters lean left

PHOENIX (August 8, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights of Phoenix, Arizona has put Representative Martha McSally in the lead of the Republican primary, but continuing to trail behind in the general election to Representative Kyrsten Sinema.

The poll also finds a recurring theme of Arizona moderate voters' disapproval of President Donald Trump, first announced in the November 2017 poll "Dangerous Slopes Ahead for the GOP in Arizona" and again in the June 2018 poll "Republicans Struggle With Moderate Voters." This poll explores the theme for a third time, looking at the most recent Arizona generic congressional ballot poll results and the correlation between Trump approval numbers.

Arizona's OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (OHPI/ABC15) teamed up to find out why Arizona moderates are essentially Democrats.

"Democrats have not won an Arizona US Senate election since 1988," said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. "With Democrat Kyrsten Sinema having no serious challenger and a contentious Republican primary election underway — this is the Democrats' golden ticket."

The chart below breaks up the sample by self-reported ideology to understand the makeup of Arizona's electorate. Moderates hold the delicate balance, but those identifying as conservative made up just under half of voters.

In this poll, the group of moderates looks similar to sampled Democrats. The first indicator is in their top issue preference. Statewide, 33% believe immigration should be the top issue, while another 31% said it should be education. Conservatives, by overwhelming margins, believe the top priority should be immigration, while liberals believe the biggest concern is education. Among moderates, 45% believe that education should take top billing, and immigration at only 8% — very similar to liberals, which is concerning for the GOP.

Overall, Trump's approval was roughly even at 48% total approve (37% strongly approve) and 49% disapprove (44% strongly disapprove). When asked who respondents would vote for in a congressional ballot, Republicans were ahead of Democrats 43–40 (R+3), while in 2016 Republicans won Arizona US House seats 52.5–43% (R+9.5). In the 2014 midterm, Republicans won Arizona US House seats 55.7–39.4% (R+16).

Among moderate voters, Trump had a net approval of -50%, and they backed the Democratic candidate by 38 points — 49% going to Democrats, only 12% to Republicans, with 31% undecided.

"Conservatives still make up half of Arizona, but moderates have the power to turn Arizona from a red state into a purple one," said Noah Rudnick, data analyst with OH Predictive Insights.

Methodology: This 40% live caller and 60% automated phone poll was completed on July 23–24, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Media Contacts: