McSally Maintains Lead Over Sinema, Turning Out Her Voters is a Key Factor

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE — Nov. 1, 2018

PHOENIX (Nov. 1, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI), conducted October 22–23, shows that Martha McSally, Arizona's Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has kept her lead over Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema, as undecideds break between the candidates.

Since our last poll, McSally has increased to a seven-point lead over Sinema, with 52% of the vote. Sinema holds 45% of the vote, with only 2% left undecided and 1% for Green candidate Angela Green.

"With the hottest race in the country coming to an end, McSally is solidifying her lead over Sinema," says Chief Pollster and Managing Partner Mike Noble. "The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll. We'll know come Election Night whether they stick with McSally or swing back to Sinema."

When looking at favorability, McSally is more highly favored with 54% of the vote, again putting her seven points above Sinema. Sinema is found unfavorable by 50% of voters, compared to McSally's 44%.

Among age groups, McSally is dominating the older voters. With Republicans over 55 years old, McSally is leading by a wide 88-point margin (92% vs. 4%). However, McSally is losing almost a quarter of younger Republicans, with only a 49-point lead.

Among Independents over 55 years old, Sinema leads by seven points (53% vs. 46%). Younger Independents are breaking more for McSally, giving her a 38-point lead (68% vs. 30%).

Throughout the state, voters have higher levels of support for McSally. In Maricopa County, McSally and Sinema are tied with 49% each. McSally leads in both Pima County and rural areas, with 53% and 59% respectively. Sinema trails with 46% in Pima County and 35% in rural areas.

"Considering the historic amount of money spent on this contest, which has been primarily in Pima and Maricopa County, it is ironic that rural Arizonans have tipped the scale in McSally's direction," says Data Analyst Noah Rudnick.

OHPI also broke down voting trends close to Election Day. Among those who have already voted, Sinema and McSally are tied at 49% each. For those with an absentee ballot not yet returned, McSally is winning at 52% vs. 44%. For those planning to vote on Election Day, McSally has a commanding 64–29% lead. With Democrats recently looking to narrow the early voting gap, it is on McSally to turn out her supporters and see her lead maintained by voters who show up on the last day.

"We have been tracking this race for almost a year and are eager to see how it ends up," says Noble. "Our polls show Arizona voters siding with McSally, and that's exactly what we expect to see next week."

Methodology: This 42% cell phone and 58% landline poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on October 22–23, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. Sample size: 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%. The partisan advantage was set at +11% GOP, based on returns when finalizing last week. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (480) 414-8770 | John Cuthbert, ABC15 — [email protected], (602) 803-2529