McSally Narrowly Leads Senate Race

Democratic Surge in Early Ballots has Tightened the Race

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE — Nov. 5, 2018

PHOENIX (Nov. 5, 2018) – The latest poll from OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona (ABC15/OHPI) shows that Martha McSally, Arizona's Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, has a one-point lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, with 49 percent of the vote. Green candidate Angela Green receives zero percent of the vote, down from one percent since our last poll. Since dropping out, Green no longer has the Election Day Independent voters — OHPI saw her take more of that group in a previous poll (8%).

The survey was conducted November 2–3, 2018 with a sample of 631 respondents qualified as likely voters. All live-callers were used to collect the sample, yielding a ±3.9% MoE.

"Arizona is seeing a historic midterm election turnout and Democratic voters are defying past historic early voting trends," said Mike Noble, Chief Pollster and Managing Partner of OH Predictive Insights. "The race has tightened and it's fitting that the winner will be decided based on who can best turn out their voters on Election Day."

Since our last poll on October 22, the largest change has been the late return of a surge of Democratic ballots in Pima County. This is done by a bloc of Democratic voters who were unsure to turn out in the general election: Steve Farley Democrats — primary voters who voted for Farley and not David Garcia in the Arizona primary.

Farley Democrats started returning their ballots en masse within the last two days of early voting, especially standing out in Pima County with a ten-point Democratic advantage of 43 percent. In Maricopa County — the largest county in the state with 60 percent of the electorate — Republicans also have a ten-point lead with 43 percent. This indicates a lagging Hispanic turnout with engaged white Democrats, a trend OHPI was looking for that did not materialize until recently.

The key comes down to Sinema's voters being more energized, while Republicans need to turn out their voters on Election Day. OHPI found that 88 percent of Sinema's voters have already turned in their ballots, while only 70 percent of McSally's voters have done the same. This is ultimately a breakdown by region, where 86 percent of Pima County's voters have already voted. Only 74 percent of those in rural areas have done so, with more being Democrats.

A Republican turnout operation will be crucial to combat Democratic excitement. While many more of the votes for Sinema are already cast and guaranteed, McSally needs to pin her votes down and solidify them.

Methodology: This all live-caller survey was conducted via 50% cell and 50% landline. The poll was completed by OH Predictive Insights on November 2–3, 2018, from a likely 2018 General Election voter sample. The sample demographics accurately reflected party affiliation, gender, region, and age. Sample size: 631 completed surveys, MoE ±3.9%. Numbers may not total 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts: Annelise Krafft, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], (480) 414-8770 | John Cuthbert, ABC15 — [email protected], (602) 803-2529