Katie Hobbs Tops Updated List of Potential Candidates

Three Republicans and Two Democrats Make Top 5

PHOENIX (May 25th, 2021)– As Arizona braces for another election season chock-full of competitive races, potential candidates are already jockeying for position.

In February, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) released its first-ever Power Rankings of popular (and sometimes unpopular) figures in Arizona. Now, three months later, it is updating that list to reflect changes in public opinion.

While current statewide officeholders dominate the top of the list – Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (No. 1), State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (No. 3), Attorney General Mark Brnovich (No. 4), and both of Arizona's US Senators (Kyrsten Sinema No. 6, Mark Kelly No. 9), and Superintendent of Public Instruction Kathy Hoffman (No. 10) – some newcomers to the list have catapulted to the top.

This May marks the first time that OHPI included Jack McCain and Michael McGuire in its rankings, who performed supremely well for their first outing. McCain, son of Arizona's late-Senator John McCain, took the No. 2 spot, overall. McGuire, the former head of the Arizona National Guard and one of the leaders in charge of spearheading Arizona's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, came in at No. 7, overall.

"Arizona voters will decide the fates of candidates in more than 100 races next year," says Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. "With that in mind and given the closely divided nature of the state, it has never been more important to get an early look at who is going to step into the arena."

As the individuals on this list begin to announce their intentions to run for specific offices, we can get an early glimpse into how those races will play out. Candidates from both parties are already hopping into what is shaping up to be a hotly contested gubernatorial race to replace the term-limited Doug Ducey. On the Republican side, State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (No. 3) and Karrin Taylor Robson (No. 18), member of the Arizona Board of Regents, have already thrown their hats into the ring. The only Democrat on OHPI's ranking to jump into the Governor's race is Marco Lopez (No. 20).

In preparation for Arizona's fourth Senate election in as many cycles, no Republican present on OHPI's ranking has announced a run to unseat Mark Kelly (No. 9). However, in this nationally-significant race, two of Kelly's fellow members of the Top 10 – AG Mark Brnovich (No. 4), and Michael McGuire (No. 7) – have been rumored to be considering launching campaigns.

OH Predictive Insights derives its Power Rankings from data collected from recent surveys which asked voters their opinions of the more than 40 individuals and their preferred characteristics of statewide office candidates. It is worth pointing out that the ranking does not consider the potential candidate's likelihood to run for office.

Other than a candidate's name ID and favorability rating, OHPI engineered a "Demographic and Experience (D/E) Score" so candidates and potential candidates who are not yet unknown to the electorate are not excluded entirely. The D/E Score considers a potential candidates' electoral history and demographic characteristics.

PDF Full Poll Toplines and Crosstabs

Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from May 3rd to May 5th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education. The sample size was 935 registered voters, with an MoE of ± 3.2%.

Media Contacts:
Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034
Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 398-0998