GOP Establishment Could be Trumped in 2024

58% of Arizona Republicans Want the Former President to Make a Comeback

XLSX Toplines and crosstabs can be found here

PHOENIX (November 18th, 2021)- Despite the nearly three years until the next presidential election, a new poll by OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) finds that more than half of Arizona Republicans believe Donald Trump should follow in Grover Cleveland's footsteps and become the first former president in more than a century to seek the office after losing re-election. The poll finds that, should he decide to run, Trump would be a prohibitive favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, running far ahead of any competitor in a crowded field.

This survey was the newest edition of OH Predictive Insights' Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP). This AZPOP was conducted November 1st – November 8th, 2021 and surveyed 713 registered voters in Arizona, giving the survey a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.

Although nearly six in ten Arizona GOP voters believe that former President Trump should launch another presidential campaign, the belief is not shared widely outside of the party. Only 27% of Independent voters and less than one in 10 Democrats believe that Trump should run again. On the other hand, nearly half (48%) of Independents and 80% of Democrats think that Donald Trump should "definitely not" make another run at the presidency.

"While former President Trump may be the ideal candidate for Republicans, nominating him could spell disaster for the party's hopes to retake the White House," said OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss. "With only a quarter of Independents and even fewer Democrats wanting a 'Trump comeback,' he may not be a viable candidate in the Grand Canyon State."

Diving deeper into Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2024, he holds a commanding lead at this point in the cycle. Given the option of nine prominent Republicans, 48% of Arizona Republicans would support Trump, 16% would vote for DeSantis, and no other candidate receives more than 10% support.

"In a fractured primary field, it is easy to see how Donald Trump could walk away with the 2024 nomination," said Joss. "Yet, despite Trump earning 48% of Republicans' support, what pro-Trump Republicans should be most concerned about – and anti-Trump Republicans should be most hopeful for – is the remaining 52% of GOP voters uniting around one non-Trump candidate."

The survey also found that, in the eyes of Arizona Republicans, Donald Trump Jr. would not be a suitable replacement for his father should the former president decide against another White House run. When asked the same 2024 GOP primary question replacing Donald Trump with Donald Trump Jr., the younger Trump earned the support of 8% of Republicans overall, and just 14% of Republicans who would support his father. Ron DeSantis and Mike Pence are the candidates who stand to benefit the most without the former president on the ballot, earning 29% and 21% of Republicans' support, respectively. Ted Cruz (10%) is the only other candidate with double-digit support.

"As Don Jr.'s performance shows, there is something about former President Trump that Arizona Republicans like more than just the name Donald Trump," said Joss.

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Methodology: This poll was conducted as an online opt-in panel survey. The survey was completed by OH Predictive Insights from November 1st to November 8th, 2021, from an Arizona Statewide Registered Voter sample. The sample demographics were weighted to accurately reflect the registered voter population by gender, region, age, party affiliation, ethnicity, and education according to a recent voter file derived from the Arizona Secretary of State's Office and recent Census data. The sample size was 713 registered voters in Arizona, with a MoE of ± 3.7%. The sample also contained a subsample of 252 self-identified registered Republicans, with a MoE of +/- 6.2%. Numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.

Media Contacts:

Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034

Veronica Sutliff, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 390-5248