POLL: Strong Majority of Arizona Voters Back Abortion Rights Amendment

Strong Majority of Arizona Voters Back Abortion Rights Amendment

Prop 139 Leads 58–34; Women, Independents Drive Support

PHOENIX (September 12th, 2024) – With less than two months until Election Day, a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights finds Arizona voters supporting Proposition 139 — the Abortion Access Act — by a commanding 58% to 34% margin. Eight percent of respondents remain undecided. The measure would enshrine a right to abortion in the Arizona state constitution up to fetal viability, generally around 24 weeks, with exceptions for medical emergencies thereafter.

The initiative comes in the wake of Arizona's near-total abortion ban, dating to 1864, being briefly reinstated by the state Supreme Court in April 2024 before the legislature voted to repeal it. That legal turmoil appears to have galvanized voters across the political spectrum, producing a coalition of support for Prop 139 that stretches well beyond the Democratic base.

Among women voters, support for the measure reaches 66%, compared to 49% among men. This 17-point gender gap could have significant implications not only for the ballot measure itself but also for down-ballot races, particularly the closely watched Senate contest between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake.

"The abortion issue has fundamentally reshaped Arizona's electoral landscape since the Dobbs decision," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "The level of intensity around Prop 139 from female voters is unlike anything we've seen around a ballot measure in years."

Independent voters support Prop 139 by a 61% to 29% margin — a striking 32-point advantage that underscores the measure's broad coalitional appeal. Even among self-identified Republicans, 28% say they support the amendment, a figure that suggests the issue crosses traditional partisan lines for a meaningful minority of GOP voters.

Partisan breakdown shows Democrats supporting Prop 139 at 87%, Republicans opposing it at 68% (with 28% in support), and Independents backing it 61% to 29%. The intensity of support is particularly notable: 44% of all respondents say they "strongly support" the measure, compared to just 22% who "strongly oppose" it — a nearly 2-to-1 enthusiasm gap among supporters.

The survey also found that 72% of Arizona voters are aware of Prop 139, a notably high recognition level for a ballot measure at this stage of the campaign. Among voters who are familiar with the measure, support rises to 62%.

"When three in four voters already know what a ballot measure is about, and nearly two-thirds of those people support it, that's a very strong position to be in going into the final stretch," says OHPI Data Analyst Jacob Joss.

Regional support shows the measure strongest in Pima County (65% support), Maricopa County (59% support), and weakest in rural Arizona (47% support, 43% oppose). The rural numbers are far more competitive than the statewide average, but even there the measure holds a modest lead.

Methodology: The Arizona Public Opinion Poll (AZPOP) was conducted September 7–9, 2024, using a blended methodology of 46% Live Caller and 54% IVR. The survey targeted Arizona 2024 Likely Voters. Sample demographics weighted for gender, region, age, party, ethnicity, and education. Sample size: 700 with ±3.7% MOE.

Media Contacts:
Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (480) 313-1837
Jacob Joss, OH Predictive Insights, [email protected], (602) 687-3034