POLL: Majority of Arizona Voters Accept Climate Science

Majority of Arizona Voters Accept Climate Science — Support Adaptation Measures

61% Say Climate Change Is Real and Human-Caused; Adaptation Investments Draw Bipartisan Support

PHOENIX (August 15th, 2024) – A majority of Arizona registered voters accept the scientific consensus on climate change, with 61% saying they believe it is real and primarily human-caused, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Nineteen percent believe climate change is occurring but is primarily driven by natural factors, and 20% either don't believe it is occurring or are unsure.

Arizona has experienced the direct physical impacts of climate change acutely: Phoenix set a record in 2023 for consecutive days above 110°F, wildfire seasons have expanded in both duration and severity, and the Colorado River water crisis is directly linked to reduced snowpack from warming temperatures. These tangible local impacts appear to have shifted voter attitudes compared to national surveys, where climate acceptance is typically somewhat lower.

Among Democrats, 89% accept the human-caused climate science. Among Independents, 61% accept it — a finding that distinguishes Arizona from more conservative states, where Independent climate acceptance is significantly lower. Among Republicans, 34% accept the human-caused consensus, 31% believe it is naturally caused, and 35% are skeptical or unsure.

Despite the partisan divide on the science, policy support is more broadly distributed. Wildfire prevention funding and forest management draw 81% support — the highest of any climate-related policy. Heat mitigation infrastructure in urban areas (more shade, cooler pavement, urban tree canopy) receives 76% support, reflecting Phoenix's well-documented urban heat island crisis. Expanded solar energy investment earns 74% support in a state that receives more sun than virtually any other.

"Arizonans might disagree about the cause of climate change, but they experience the heat, the wildfires, and the water shortage firsthand," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "When you frame climate policy as adaptation and preparation — protecting homes from fire, cooling cities, securing water — it draws broad support across party lines."

The survey also found that 67% of Arizona voters believe the state should develop a formal climate adaptation plan, and 71% support continued investment in renewable energy, particularly solar. Arizona's solar capacity has expanded rapidly, and the economic development benefits of the clean energy sector are increasingly recognized by business-oriented Republican voters.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted August 10–12, 2024. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.