POLL: Strong Arizona Voter Support for $15 Minimum Wage Increase

Strong Arizona Voter Support for $15 Minimum Wage Increase

62–31 Margin Reflects Bipartisan Economic Anxiety; Women and Hispanics Drive Support

PHOENIX (March 21st, 2024) – A strong majority of Arizona registered voters support raising the state minimum wage to $15 per hour, according to a new AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Support stands at 62% to 31% opposition, with 7% unsure — a 31-point margin that reflects widespread voter concern about the cost of living and economic inequality.

Arizona's current minimum wage of $14.35 per hour (2024) is already above the federal floor of $7.25, having been incrementally increased since voters approved a minimum wage ballot measure in 2016. However, with Phoenix-area consumer prices rising 8.2% since 2021, many workers and advocates argue the current minimum wage has failed to keep pace with the cost of living.

Support is strongest among women voters (68% support), Hispanic voters (74% support), voters under 35 (71% support), and low-income households earning under $40,000 annually (78% support). More surprising is the cross-partisan nature of the support: while Democrats back the $15 minimum wage at 82%, a notable 41% of Republicans support the increase — a finding that reflects the populist economic pressures driving voter sentiment.

"The minimum wage issue has always been popular, but the intensity of support in the current inflationary environment is something we haven't seen in years," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "When 41% of Republicans support a significant minimum wage increase, you're looking at a genuine bipartisan economic anxiety story."

Opponents of the minimum wage increase largely cite concerns about small business viability (cited by 58% of opponents), job losses (49%), and price increases (44%). Business groups have argued that a $15 minimum wage would disproportionately burden Arizona's significant restaurant, retail, and hospitality sectors. However, the survey finds that 67% of Arizona voters who are aware of academic research showing minimal job losses from moderate minimum wage increases still support the policy.

Among likely voters who could vote on a ballot initiative, support rises to 65% — a level consistent with passage if a minimum wage initiative appeared on the November 2024 ballot.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted March 16–18, 2024. Blended 48% Live Caller / 52% IVR. Arizona Registered Voters. n=600 with ±4.0% MOE.