POLL: Sen. Kelly Approval Holds at 55% — Water and Veterans Work Drive Strong Numbers

Sen. Kelly Approval Holds at 55% — Water and Veterans Work Drive Strong Numbers

Arizona's Senior Senator Among Most Popular in Purple States; 29% Republican Approval Reflects Bipartisan Reach

PHOENIX (October 9th, 2025) – Arizona U.S. Senator Mark Kelly continues to post among the strongest approval ratings of any Democratic senator in a competitive state, with 55% of Arizona registered voters approving of his job performance, according to the latest AZPOP survey from OH Predictive Insights. Thirty-four percent disapprove and 11% have no opinion.

Kelly's durably high approval — he has posted 52% or higher in every AZPOP survey since winning the 2022 election — reflects the unique political brand he has cultivated in Arizona. As a former NASA astronaut, combat veteran, and husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords, Kelly combines a compelling personal biography with a moderate, bipartisan legislative record that has resonated with Arizona's large Independent voter bloc and a meaningful minority of Republicans.

Among Independent voters, Kelly leads with a 59% approval and only 28% disapproval — a net +31 that is the highest recorded for any Arizona official in AZPOP's current tracking. Among Republicans, 29% approve of Kelly's performance — a consistent finding that reflects the crossover appeal that has made him one of the most politically durable Democrats in Arizona history.

"Kelly has figured out how to represent a purple state in the Trump era," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "His biography gives him insulation from partisan attacks, and his moderate voting record on defense, veterans, and fiscal issues gives Republicans legitimate reasons to approve of him."

On specific policy areas, Kelly receives highest marks for his work on veterans affairs (64% approve), water infrastructure (61% approve — reflecting his cosponsorship of major Colorado River funding legislation), and national defense (58% approve). His lowest issue-area rating is on immigration (42% approve, 48% disapprove), where his perceived alignment with Democratic Party positions creates vulnerability in a border state.

Kelly is up for reelection in 2028, giving him substantial runway to continue building his brand. The survey finds that 57% of Arizona voters say he deserves to be reelected — an unusually strong position for a senator more than two years before their next election.

Methodology: AZPOP conducted October 4–6, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.