AZPOP Q3 2025: Issue Tracker — Healthcare Rises, Immigration Falls, Water Holds Steady

AZPOP Q3 2025: Issue Tracker — Healthcare Rises, Immigration Falls, Water Holds Steady

Healthcare Now Second at 29%; Immigration Falls to 17% as Border Crossings Decline

PHOENIX (October 23rd, 2025) – The Q3 2025 AZPOP Issue Tracker from OH Predictive Insights documents a significant shift in Arizona voters' policy priorities: healthcare costs have risen to become voters' second most pressing concern at 29%, while immigration has fallen to 17% — a sharp decline from 28% a year ago — as the dramatic reduction in border crossings under the Trump administration removes it as an active crisis issue.

The economy and cost of living maintains its first-place position at 38%, a level it has held consistently since 2021. Within the economy category, respondents increasingly mention specific cost drivers: grocery prices (mentioned by 47% of economy-focused voters), housing and rent costs (41%), healthcare and insurance premiums (38%), and utility costs (22%). The tariff-driven inflation narrative is now well-established among Arizona voters across partisan groups.

Healthcare's rise to second place is the most significant shift in the current survey cycle. The 29% figure represents an 11-point increase since Q3 2024, driven primarily by a combination of insurance premium increases, drug pricing concerns, and the rollback of Medicare negotiation provisions. Among voters aged 50–64 — a pivotal demographic in Arizona — healthcare ranks first at 41%, making it more politically salient than even the economy for this age cohort.

"Healthcare has become the dominant issue of the second half of the decade in Arizona," says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. "It's the issue that's growing fastest in salience, and it hasn't yet peaked. Every month that prescription prices stay high and insurance premiums keep rising, this number gets bigger."

Immigration's decline from 28% to 17% represents a direct consequence of the Trump administration's border enforcement success. When a problem appears to be solved — even partially — voters' attention moves on to other pressing concerns. This issue priority shift has significant implications for 2026 candidates who had planned to run primarily on immigration; they now need a broader policy platform.

Water policy's stability at 22% — unchanged from Q1 — reflects its transition from an episodic crisis issue to a structural long-term concern. Unlike immigration (which has improved) or healthcare (which has worsened), water is a slow-moving crisis that voters have internalized as a persistent challenge requiring sustained attention.

Methodology: AZPOP Q3 Issue Tracker conducted October 18–20, 2025. n=600 Arizona Registered Voters. ±4.0% MOE.