The Push for Kush

While moderates are more willing, vast majority remain opposed

PHOENIX (June 15, 2018) – A new poll from OH Predictive Insights of likely 2018 Arizona Republican primary voters asked if they supported the legalization of recreational marijuana. Almost three quarters of respondents were opposed, while 21% were in favor.

This comes in the wake of the 2016 failed ballot measure, defeated narrowly with 51.3% (only 67,000 votes). OHPI polled this as a close loss in October 2016 and found that Arizona Republicans backed the measure at only 30–64. Those were presidential year general election voters — not a more conservative, older midterm electorate — so the comparison isn't equal, but it shows opposition remains strong.

"Despite Arizona sharing a border with two legalization states, California and Nevada, legalization of recreational marijuana won't happen until demographics change," said Mike Noble, chief pollster and managing partner at OH Predictive Insights.

While Republicans are opposed across the board, there is higher relative support among more moderate voters. Christian Conservatives, however, make up a larger bloc and are opposed at much higher rates. The chart below shows support for legalization broken down by GOP faction, with bar height indicating the relative size of each group within the party.

"If the Trump backers don't get on board, the large core base of Christian Conservatives will ensure that the Republican party will not be supporting legalization anytime soon," said Noah Rudnick, data analyst with OH Predictive Insights.

Methodology: IVR telephone survey, June 11–12, 2018. Likely Arizona 2018 Republican Primary voters. 90% Republican / 10% Independent. 100% landline. 600 completed surveys, MoE ±4%.

Media Contact: Haylye Plaster, OH Predictive Insights — [email protected], 602-402-5181