Recreational Marijuana Faces Up-Hill Battle in Ariz. This November

Presidential election turnout will be a factor on pot success or failure

PHOENIX (September 6, 2016) — Recreational Marijuana will be on the ballot in Arizona this November, which will be one of the more controversial issues voters will be asked to decide upon. As of early September, the Yes vote still has an up-hill battle, according to a recent poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights.

In a survey of 728 likely Democrat, Republican, Independent and Non-Declared voters across Arizona based on projected 2016 general election turnout, legalizing recreational marijuana is still underwater by 11 points. OH Predictive Insights polled this exact same question on June 20, 2016, with similar results.

Voters in at least five states will decide whether to legalize marijuana for recreational use this November. Ballot initiatives are set to appear in Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada. Alaska, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington state have already legalized recreational usage.

"As of right now, the pro side is down 14 points with females, tied with Independents 45/45 and losing Republicans by two-thirds," said Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights and chief pollster. "For every voter who pulls the lever for Donald Trump this November, there is a 72 percent likelihood they will vote 'No' on legalizing recreational Marijuana. Conversely, Hillary Clinton voters have a 57 percent likelihood of voting 'Yes'."

"Presidential turnout will be a key factor on whether or not pot gets legalized in Arizona," Noble added.

Methodology (August survey): Live callers and automated phones, August 25–27, 2016. 2016 general election sample. 728 completed surveys, MoE ±3.63%, 23% cell phones / 77% landlines.

Methodology (June survey): Automated calls, June 20, 2016. 2016 general election sample. 1,060 completed surveys, MoE ±3.01%.

Media Contact: Mackenzie Keller — [email protected]